854 FXUS62 KRAH 031605 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1205 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will build across the eastern US, then offshore, through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 235 AM Friday... Underneath a 588 dm ridge, Canadian high pressure will remain entrenched over the region, maintaining a dry and stable airmass over central NC. Forecast guidance suggests a very modest increase in low-level thicknesses, supporting highs similar to or a few degree warmers than yesterday, particularly across the Sandhills and coastal plain where stratocumulus was more pronounced yesterday. Afternoon temperatures will range from lower 70s across the north to mid 70s across the south. Some high clouds may move in after midnight, which could locally temper radiational cooling. Nevertheless, another crisp and cool autumn night is expected, with temperatures cooling quickly after sunset. Anyone with outdoor plans this evening will want to grab a sweater or light jacket. Lows in the lower to mid 50s, and some mid/upper 40s possible in more rural outlying areas. Additionally, latest HREF and SREF probabilities show a higher signal for pockets of fog and stratus early Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 AM Friday... Canadian high pressure extending over the region will begin to moderate as the parent high center drifts south over the southern mid-Atlantic and DELMARVA region. Aloft, ridging and associated synoptic scale subsidence will persist. Diurnal stratocumulus beneath passing thin cirrus will yield partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs will warm into mid to upper 70s, with a few spots near 80s, accompanied by a slight uptick in humidity as dewpoints climb into the upper 50s to around 60. Saturday night will not be as cool, with increasing BL moisture favoring areas of fog and and stratus during the predawn hours. Lows ranging from lower 50s north to upper 50s/near 60 south. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1205 PM Friday... For Sunday through Tuesday, tranquil weather will be the rule with a ridge at the sfc and aloft the primary factor in our weather. With each day, the sfc high will move farther east, which will allow a gradual warming trend thanks to subtle waa on the back side of the ridge. By Tuesday night and early Wednesday a short wave trough will move across the Great Lakes region, followed by a trailing jet streak and s/w trough axis that will move across our area Wednesday night. This setup will push a cold front across our area on Wednesday. It appears that there will be enough prefrontal moisture advection, along with synop scale lift both with prefrontal waa and frontal lift itself to warrant 20-30 PoPs starting late Tuesday night and lasting through Wednesday night. With daytime timing for fropa, will keep the mentioned of possible tstms in the forecast thanks to prefrontal instability. Highs on Wednesday, with late afternoon fropa timing, suggest highs once again in the low-mid 80s. For the late-week period, there's low confidence regarding whether Wednesday's front gets hung up over the Carolinas or whether it pushes south of our area. For now the NBM solution leans toward dry, but keep in mind that this could change if a solution featuring a slower-moving front ends up verifying. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 620 AM Friday... Canadian high pressure entrenched over the region will support prevailing VFR conditions through the 24 hr TAF period. The main exception will be the potential for pockets of fog early Saturday morning, though confidence is too low to include at this time. Winds will remain from the NE, with a brief period of post-sunrise gustiness expected at KFAY. Outlook: While persistent high pressure over the Middle Atlantic will favor primarily VFR conditions, associated nely to ely flow around it will favor both periods of stratocumulus based around and just above MVFR range and also a risk of patchy fog, as low-level moisture gradually increases through the weekend. The chance of showers will also gradually increase early to especially mid-next week, ahead of an approaching cold front. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...np AVIATION...CBL/MWS