597 FXUS63 KMKX 031555 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1055 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonable, summer like temps in the mid to upper 80s today and again Saturday. May see near record high temps for Madison and Milwaukee areas. - Dry conditions through the weekend, but scattered shower and thunderstorm chances (20-50%) return early next week with a cold front passage. - Gusty winds along the Lake Michigan through the weekend will bring small craft conditions later Saturday and Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued 1050 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 There may be some small potential to see a few very isolated sprinkles/light showers out of a thin band of cloud cover stretching from Platteville to Green Bay this morning into the afternoon as the band travels east and dissipates. Otherwise, near record to record highs are anticipated today. Madison has the best chances to break the record high of 85 set in 2005 with a forecast high of 87. Milwaukee may fall at or just short of the record of 86 set in 2018, with a forecast high of 84. CMiller && .SHORT TERM... Issued 333 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 Today through Saturday: Axis of the upper-level ridge builds into the region today through Saturday. Looking more at the surface, southern WI sits in between the mid-Atlantic surface high pressure and a developing central Plains low resulting in steady southerly winds and WAA. The combination of this pattern will contribute to a stretch of summer- like heat this weekend. Looking at high temps today to build well into the 80s with even a few locations around the WI Dells and toward the WI/IL border to approach and even potentially (10-30% chance based off of 00z HREF and NBM) exceed 90F. Nevertheless given mid 80s records for MKE and MSN areas, keep an eye out for high temps to potential break some records. Mild temps are expected overnight tonight with lows only bottoming out in the low to mid 60s. Saturday will be fairly similar to Friday with dry conditions, breezy southerly winds in the afternoon, and high temps in the mid/upper 80s, which may approach records again. Wagner && .LONG TERM... Issued 333 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 Saturday night through Thursday: High pressure will begin to weaken over the Mid-Atlantic region as low pressure builds northeast from the upper plains. In the upper levels, the upper low over the far western US will steadily lift through the central US through the weekend. While the upper low and correlated surface low will not directly impact southern WI the system appears likely to drag a front through the region early next week trending slightly earlier. While support in the upper levels seems limited, the low to mid levels seem to carry enough moisture and forcing (WAA, front) to bring showers and maybe some thunderstorms to the region. In addition the nature of the trailing front will keep things moving fairly slowly. This will then bring ongoing potential for shower/storms across southern WI from Monday into Tuesday before higher pressure nudges back in behind the front for the middle of the week. Kuroski && .AVIATION... Issued 1055 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 Expect continuing VFR today amid light to moderate southwest winds. Terminals along the lakeshore may see a more southerly direction. A few widely scattered sprinkles/light showers may impact KMSN, KFLD, and KSBM into early this afternoon, but chances are <15%. CMiller && .MARINE... Issued 333 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 Lake Michigan will sit in between a broad area of high pressure lingering along the Atlantic Coast of the US and a developing low pressure across the Central Plains through the weekend. This will result in prevailing southerly to southwesterly winds with higher gusts each afternoon. Sunday looks to see the strongest winds across Lake Michigan with the low pressure deepening as it lifts across the Dakotas into Ontario region. Small craft conditions expected in the nearshore with widespread gusts of 20-30 knots across the open waters Sunday with a potential to see gale force gusts across the northern third later Sunday afternoon and evening. No marines headlines at this time, but will monitor if this trend continues. Otherwise expect winds to gradually ease as the cold front extending from the low pressure pushes across the region for the start of next week and bring a cooler, more seasonable airmass along with a west to northwesterly wind shift. Wagner && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee