737 FXUS62 KKEY 030815 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 415 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 415 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 A very chaotic and active overnight for the Florida Keys. The Upper Keys took the brunt of the activity with the remaining Keys only see brief showers and thunderstorms. A weak stationary boundary sits in the extreme southwestern North Atlantic near the Bahamas. This has been the main focal point for storm initiation as a weak upper level shortwave ripples through the southeast U.S. At the same time, a high pressure that is along the eastern shoreline of the U.S. is slowly moving east into the Atlantic and building. This has led to an increase in winds outside of the enhanced winds we have gotten due to all of the convection. Lastly, the effects of a backed-up Gulfstream continue to be felt, especially across the Bayside communities of the Upper Keys. As a result, a Coastal Flood Advisory has now been issued due to rising water levels in the Florida Bay. Coastal Flood Statement remains active in the Middle Keys. .FORECAST... A very messy and active weather pattern is expected over the coming days. The aforementioned stationary boundary will remain generally in place across the Bahamas and south Florida. This will continue to generate showers and thunderstorms that will get steered southwest to west across the Keys later today. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will begin taking shape later today or tonight and continuing into Saturday. This surface low will lie just to the east of the Southeastern Bahamas. Any additional development is expected to be slow to occur as this feature moves northwestward across the Florida Peninsula. Regardless, this will bring above normal rain chances for the Keys through the weekend. By late Saturday, this feature will move into the eastern Gulf basin. At the same time, the stationary front will begin lifting northward as a warm front and the winds will briefly becoming southerly. As the low travels further northwest and moves inland over Louisiana, high pressure will back into the southeast U.S., including the Sunshine State. This will bring winds quickly back from the northeast to east and freshen. A period of breezy condition is possible starting late Tuesday and continuing into midweek. Lastly, the front that started all this mess will actually get shoved back south. Models differ on how far south this will get pushed through. The GFS wants more of a clean passage with dry air filtering in behind and bringing a brief reprieve from the active weather. The ECMWF is more pessimistic with the front stalling either overhead or near the Florida Keys. This in turn would keep rain chances above normal. && .MARINE... Issued at 415 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 The Gulfstream remains backed up and is creating for higher tides, especially in the nearshore waters surrounding the Middle and Upper Keys. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges. High pressure is slowly moving across the eastern U.S., which will maintain a northeast wind across our waters. This high will build into the western North Atlantic, leading to freshening northeast to east breezes into Friday evening. Winds will then briefly clock around towards the southeast for the upcoming weekend and return from the east early next week. Another period of moderate to fresh breezes is possible starting Monday night. Expect an active weather pattern with winds and seas expected to be higher in and around thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 415 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the 06Z TAF period. Shower chances remain slightly above normal for this time of the year. Latest guidance a potential repeat yesterday with convection on the mainland moving southwestward weakening as it progresses across the Keys. Due to uncertainty in timing and placement, VCSH was not included in the TAF. Near surface winds will be mainly north to northeast between 3 to 8 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 87 77 88 79 / 40 40 30 40 Marathon 86 77 86 79 / 50 40 30 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory for FLZ076. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest