969 FXUS64 KOHX 030408 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1108 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1038 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Dry with warmer than normal temperatures through at least this weekend. - Low chance (20-30%) rain could return by Monday/Tuesday next week. - A pattern shift next week will bring additional chances for rain and temperatures back to near normal values. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday Night) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Calm conditions persist tonight with dew point temperatures a few degrees cooler than this time last night as slightly drier air has filtered into the area. PWAT values are a whole 0.10" less on tonight's sounding vs last night's sounding, and you can feel the difference. Not expecting much radiation fog this evening as southerly sustained winds will remain between 5 to 7 mph overnight. Temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 50s. The ever so slightly cooler temperatures will continue into Friday with highs forecast to be 3 to 4 degrees cooler, in the low to mid 80s, with low humidity. Aside from some passing clouds, tomorrow will be another quiet weather day and Friday night festivities should be able to go on without any interruptions from mother nature. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 The large area of high pressure currently occupying the northeast coast will continue to influence our weather locally through the majority of the weekend, keeping dry conditions and above-normal temperatures around. Temperatures will creep back up to near 90 degrees west of the Plateau by the end of the weekend. On Sunday, our variable winds at 500mb will shift out of the SSE and increase to near 15 kts, helping infuse gulf moisture back into the area. This increase in moisture and the breakdown of high pressure will allow for rain and storm chances to make a return to Middle TN starting Monday with low chances around 20% currently forecast. Chances creep up on Tuesday and Wednesday to 35-40%. Long term models remain in good agreement that a longwave trough will develop and eventually push a cold front through our area sometime Wednesday. Though it is still a ways out, the current models and soundings do not favor severe weather at this time with overall poor parameters and an unfavorable synoptic pattern. Temperatures during the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe thankfully return to near normal values, around 80 degrees for the highs and 50s to 60s for overnight lows. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 A surface ridge remains locked in place over Middle Tennessee. We can look forward to light/calm winds the next 24 hrs. with VFR wx except for overnight dense radiation fog and low stratus at KSRB. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 60 85 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 61 86 57 87 / 10 10 0 0 Crossville 52 77 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 57 84 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 56 79 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 55 78 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 56 82 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 58 83 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 59 84 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baggett LONG TERM....Baggett AVIATION.....Rose