585 FXAK67 PAJK 292322 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 322 PM AKDT Mon Sep 29 2025 .SHORT TERM...A drier period of weather is in store for the panhandle - but not quite yet. One last round of rain is anticipated to advance north Monday evening as a decaying frontal band brings chances of precipitation up beyond just the outer coast and into the central and northern panhandle. While rainfall is expected, am not expecting any significant quantities of QPF with the system, with anticipated totals remaining less than 0.5 inches. By late Monday night, the system will have disintegrated entirely. In its wake, a building ridge will lead to clearing skies and more northerly outflow. Before the northerly outflow has ramped up, do anticipate that a period of fog is likely for much of the panhandle, including some of the central and northern inner channels. High temperatures on Tuesday look to be in the low to mid 50s, with lows falling into the 30s or 40s, as the air begins to take on a decidedly more autumn feeling. The dry weather looks set to continue through the middle of the week before a system arrives late week, for additional details, see the long term forecast discussion. .LONG TERM...For the start of the long term, high pressure continues to remain over the area for Wednesday. With high pressure over the area, and lower pressure to the south, outflow winds are expected to develop for north/south oriented sections. These outflow winds are expected to dissipate as high pressure moves closer to the coast weakening the pressure gradient. This high pressure is then expected to continue to shift to the east for Thursday as low pressure moves into the western gulf from the north west. This low is expected to move out of the Bering Sea before moving into the eastern Gulf. With cooler air aloft and snow levels already down to 3,500-4,500ft during this time, the termination dust line will likely continue to work down the mountainside. The possibility of snow mixing down to White Pass is possible and could result in a dusting to minor accumulations for this area especially during heavier periods of precipitation Thursday into Friday. Everywhere below 3,000ft is expected to continue to see rain but temperatures will continue to be in the 40s to 50s during this time. Headed into the weekend, high pressure returns across the Gulf which will introduce mostly benign weather for the with the exception of some increased winds in certain parts of the panhandle. Long term guidance points towards a near normal trend for this time of the year. Although places to the north will likely see a higher potential for above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. While farther to the south, there is a greater chance for near normal temperatures but potentially below normal precipitation for the next one to two weeks. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions rule the inner channels north of Sumner Strait. MVFR and occasional IFR Vis or Ceilings have been observed in the south and along the outer coast South of Cape Fairweather due to the front that is starting to come inland this afternoon. That front is expected to continue moving inland tonight mainly over the southern panhandle. Main push of rain will be this evening with the southern panhandle seeing the brunt of it from Frederick Sound southward. Expect to see ceilings and vis drop to MVFR (with isolated IFR at times) in that region due to the rain. Conditions improve into Tuesday as most areas start to dry out. Winds are mostly low and are expected to remain mostly below 20 kt for the most part for most areas. && .MARINE... Inner Channels: Winds briefly flip back out of the S Monday evening as a decaying front moves north through the panhandle, with a period of 15-20 kt wind expected. By Tuesday, winds be flipping to the N as a ridge builds overhead, with wind speeds of 15-20 kt out of the north for some of the inner channels, and isolated patches of 25 kt winds for some more topographically enhanced areas, like Point Couverden. Wind speeds will diminish on Wednesday to 5-10 as the N/S pressure gradient slackens. Outside Waters: Small craft conditions subside as a weak front which has been stalled along the outside waters pushes inland and dissipates. In its wake, winds turn more northerly on Tuesday, reaching 20-25 kt for areas south of Lituya Bay. Waves build up to 11-12 ft by Tuesday night for the southern gulf and outer coastal waters, and build back up to 5-7 feet for the northern gulf. SW swell begins to rebuild by late Tuesday, before turning out of the SE Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY...A new glacier dam lake release was detected on the Taku River. The Taku River gage near the Canadian border showed a rise in water levels accompanied by a noticeable drop in water temperature compared to recent temperatures. As of 1 pm, the water level was at 35.6 ft, which is still well below minor flood stage of 43 ft. How much water is being release is unknown, but it could be a third release of the year from Lake Nolake. The previous two releases on the Taku earlier this year did not reach flood stage, and this one is also not expected to reach flood stage either (expected crest sometime Tuesday afternoon below action stage), but with the unknown on volume of water released there is a large uncertainty bar on how high and when the river will crest. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ332. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-641-642-661>664-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...GFS LONG TERM...SF AVIATION...EAL MARINE...GFS HYDROLOGY...EAL Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau