158 FXUS61 KAKQ 282357 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 757 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to track north off the Southeast coast Monday before becoming a hurricane as it turns out to sea on Tuesday. Light rain well north of the systems overspreads the local area Monday into Tuesday. However, only light rainfall total are now expected. High pressure builds in from mid to late week with cooler and drier weather returning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 135 PM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - Partly to mostly cloudy skies continue this afternoon. - A few light showers are possible across NE NC this afternoon and S VA/NE NC late tonight. Latest surface analysis depicted surface high pressure centered across the Ohio Valley and Midwest with a stationary coastal front located offshore. Aloft, a shortwave trough remains across the Southeast, allowing for moisture advection from the tropics northward into the Mid Atlantic. As such, partly cloudy skies continue this afternoon across the NW half of the FA (due to CU) with mostly cloudy skies across the SE half of the area. Temps as of 120 PM ranged from the low-upper 70s with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s (locally near 80F) expected. Cannot rule out an isolated shower or two across NE NC this afternoon, but radar trends have not been promising given the coastal front now located offshore. A brief break in the cloud cover is possible this evening across northern portions of the FA which may allow for some patchy fog to develop. However, confidence is low. Otherwise, cloud cover increases from south to north overnight as moisture continues to advect into the region aloft. Overnight lows in the lower 60s NW to upper 60s SE are expected. Additionally, a few light showers are possible across south central VA and NE NC late tonight into early Mon morning with very little QPF expected. However, a bit of dry air in the mid levels may keep moisture from reaching the ground until Mon. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Light rain is possible Monday into Tuesday. - Breezy NE winds are expected Tuesday and Wednesday, especially along the coast where gusts up to around 30 mph are possible Tuesday and 35 to 40 mph Wednesday. Aloft, a shortwave trough/weak upper level low forms across the western Carolinas Mon into Tue. At the surface, Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to move north off the Southeast coast before turning east and heading out to sea as a hurricane on Tue. Meanwhile, Hurricane Humberto is also expected to make a turn and head out to sea on Tue. Tropical Storm Imelda has taken longer to get organized than model guidance originally depicted over the past few days. As such, it is slower, which now means that it will very likely miss it's opportunity to get closer to the Southeast coast before turning out to sea. For the local area this means lower rainfall totals Mon into Tue. In fact, rainfall totals have now decreased to <0.1" north of I-64 with 0.25-0.5" possible across S VA and NE NC. As such, flash flooding is no longer expected Mon or Tue. Nevertheless, moisture still overspreads the area Mon into Tue, well north of Tropical Storm Imelda. PoPs increase to 30-50% across the SW half of the FA Mon into Mon night with the highest PoPs (50-60%) Mon night. PoPs decrease through the day Tue as Imelda moves farther offshore, cutting off the moisture advection. Dry weather returns Tue night into Wed as high pressure begins to build SE from Canada into New England and the Mid-Atlantic. The pressure gradient increases between Imelda to the south and the high pressure to the north Tue into Wed. As such, NE winds become breezy Tue into Wed with gusts up to 20 mph across interior portions of SE VA/NE NC Tue and up to 30 mph along the coast. Winds continue to increase on Wed with gusts up to 25 mph inland and up to 35-40 mph along the coast possible. Otherwise, highs in the mid-upper 70s Mon and low-mid 70s Tue and Wed are expected. Lows in the mid-upper 60s Mon night, upper 50s NW to mid-upper 60s SE Tue night, and upper 40s NW to around 60F SE Wed night are expected. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 305 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Cooler, drier weather is expected by late week into the weekend. Aloft, a large ridge builds well into eastern Canada late week into next weekend. At the surface, a strong area of high pressure builds SE into New England and the Mid-Atlantic by late week into next weekend. This will result in cooler weather arriving with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s Thu and Fri, low-mid 70s Sat, and mid- upper 70s Sun. Lows will be cooler as well with lows in the upper 40s W to upper 50s to around 60F E Thu and Fri nights, lower 50s W to upper 50s to around 60F E Sat night, and mid-upper 50s to lower 60s along the coast Sun night. Given the high pressure building in, dry weather is also expected to prevail from late week through next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 750 PM EDT Sunday... Partly to mostly cloudy skies to start off the forecast period, with the highest cloud cover across the SE half of the area. CIGs are generally VFR, but a few pockets of MVFR have been noted (mainly SE). Clouds thicken through the night into Monday morning from south to north, with CIGs falling back to MVFR. IFR CIGs remain possible at ECG, mainly between ~09 and 15z. Patchy fog may try to develop at SBY (where there is less cloud cover) after 07z, and IFR VSBYs are possible (moderate confidence). Mostly cloudy to overcast skies are expected everywhere during the day on Monday, with primarily low-end MVFR CIGs (pockets of IFR possible). Scattered light showers are possible by later Monday morning-afternoon. The best chances for showers will be at RIC and to the SW. Showers are expected to be light with minimal VSBY restrictions possible. Calm or light and variable winds tonight, becoming NE 5-10 kt on Monday. Outlook: Periods of sub-VFR conditions continue through Tuesday. VFR conditions then return Wednesday through Friday. && .MARINE... As of 345 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - SCAs have been issued starting later Monday for the southern coastal waters. - Deteriorating conditions and building NE winds are expected for all areas, with SCAs needed for all areas, and Gale Watches likely for at least the lower Bay/southern coastal waters. - The strongest winds are expected late Tuesday night through Early Thursday, primarily due to a strong pressure gradient N of the region as Humberto and Imelda move well offshore. - Follow the latest information from the National Hurricane Center regarding the progress of Humberto and Imelda. Latest analysis indicates ~1018mb sfc high pressure now building across the local waters. The morning surge has diminished, with NNE winds averaging around 10 kt for most of the area, locally to around 15 kt in the lower Bay. Waves are ~2 ft, with seas mostly around 3 ft offshore. Tropical Storm Imelda is slowly moving N from the central Bahamas, with Humberto well offshore. Humberto will send increasingly strong long- period swell toward the local waters for much of the first half of the week ahead, progged to see a dominant period around 15 sec by Tuesday. This will translate to slowly building seas Monday, with that trend to continue through midweek. The tightening pressure gradient between the tropical systems to the SE and strong 1032+mb sfc high pressure pushing SE across Quebec will lock in a prolonged period of elevated NE winds, expected to peak from late Tuesday night into early Thursday. These gusty winds will be in addition to the developing high surf across our area due to the sharpening gradient and the incoming strong E-SE swell. NE winds pick up to 15-20kt Monday and Monday night with seas increasing AOA 4-5ft by aftn for the southern ocean zones (where SCAs have been issued). SCAs are likely to be needed for most of the remaining zones by Monday night. In addition, despite the distant track of the tropical systems, the pressure gradient should be strong enough for Gales at least in the lower Bay and the coastal waters S of Parramore (will hold off one more cycle before issuing Gale Watches as this is mainly 5th period/Tue night). tomorrow through late week. Winds and seas increase further Tuesday into Wednesday, expected to build to 10-14 ft S and 8-11 ft N by Wed, with waves in the Bay 3-5 ft N and 5-6 ft S (6-8 ft at the mouth of the Bay). Winds gradually diminish Thursday and continue to decrease Friday, but headlines for elevated seas are expected to continue into next weekend. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 355 PM EDT Sunday... Tidal departures remain minimal with no coastal flooding expected through Tuesday morning. After that, expect anomalies to steadily increase, as strong high pressure slowly drops SE across Quebec, while Humberto and Tropical Storm Imelda, move farther offshore. The tightening pressure gradient will bring a prolonged period of strong onshore flow, and a high likelihood of at least minor coastal flooding Wed/Thu for the lower-mid Bay and James/York River, as well as most of the zones adjacent to the Atlantic. Most of this is anticipated to be Minor flooding, though some local moderate flooding is currently forecast for portions of the James River, as well as Lynnhaven. The bayside of the eastern shore will likely stay below flood through Wed night, but could see flooding develop late in the week as winds start to drop off with water being trapped in the Bay, allowing tidal anomalies to potentially drift north up the Bay. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RMM NEAR TERM...RMM SHORT TERM...RMM LONG TERM...RMM AVIATION...AJB/RMM MARINE...LKB/MAM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...