769 FXUS61 KAKQ 280726 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 326 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Showers taper off this evening and overnight from west to east. Tropical Depression Nine is expected to become a hurricane as it tracks north off the Southeast coast through Tuesday. While the center of the low is not expected to be near the local area, rain from the system is expected to overspread the local area Monday into Tuesday. However, uncertainity remains high regarding rainfall totals given uncertainties regarding the exact track of the system. High pressure builds in by late week with cooler and drier weather likely. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 735 PM EDT Saturday... Key Message: - The Flood Watch has been trimmed to include only SE VA counties as showers move eastward. Showers and heavy rain will continue to taper off this evening and overnight. Rain tapers off from SW to NE this evening into tonight, potentially lingering across the Eastern Shore through tonight. The Flood Watch remains in effect for SE VA through midnight. The showers have stalled with little eastward moving from the Eastern Shore to VA Beach and NE NC. A Flash Flood Warning remains in effect for the cities of VA Beach and Chesapeake through 9 PM. Showers and periodic heavy rain should taper off, moving offshore within the next couple of hours. Albeit, the models have struggled with the showers today, so they could linger overnight, although the main flooding threat has declined. Lows tonight in the low to mid 60s inland and upper 60s along the coast are expected. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - A few isolated showers are possible Sunday across far SE VA/NE NC. - Rain chances increase Monday into Tuesday as the outer rain bands from Tropical Depression Nine (expected to become Hurricane Imelda) overspread the region. - Breezy NE winds are expected Tuesday, especially along the coast where gusts up to around 30 mph are possible. Aloft, the upper level trough weakens Sun across the Southeast. At the surface, the stationary front slowly moves south as a cold front. As such, PoPs have decreased for Sun with only a slight chance (15-20% PoPs) for a few isolated showers across far SE VA/NE NC during the afternoon. Will note that a few light showers may linger across the Eastern Shore early Sun morning. Otherwise, most remain dry Sun under partly to mostly cloudy skies (highest cloud cover SE and the most sun NW). Tropical Depression Nine is expected to become Hurricane Imelda by Tue morning as it moves N off the Southeast coast. Recent model trends have been for a more western track which would take the system closer to the FL coastline. However, most model guidance now shows the system stalling off the GA/SC coast Tue before moving east out to sea Wed into late week as a strong area of high pressure begins to build into New England from Canada. As such, confidence in locally heavy rainfall has decreased across the local area given how far displaced the FA is from the center of the system. Nevertheless, the outer rain bands from the system are still expected to move into at least southern portions of the FA Mon into Tue (PoPs increase to 50-60% along and south of I-64 with 15-40% PoPs north of I-64). Rainfall totals are currently forecast to be around 1-1.5" across far S VA/NE NC with 0.5-1" across most of the area south of I-64. However, given some lingering uncertainties regarding the exact track of Tropical Depression Nine, WPC has maintained a marginal ERO (excessive rainfall outlook) for southern portions of the area both Mon and Tue. Locally heavy flooding and localized flooding continue to be the main concerns. Apart from the rain, the gradient winds increase well north of the center of Tropical Depression Nine Tue. NE winds gusting to ~20 mph inland across SE VA/NE NC and up to ~30 mph along the coast of Virginia Beach and Currituck are possible. Otherwise, highs in the mid-upper 70s (most in the upper 70s) Sun and Mon with low-mid 70s Tue are expected. Lows remain above normal in the 60s each night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Cooler, drier weather is expected by late week. - Breezy conditions are expected Wed and Thu with gusts up to 40 mph possible along the SE VA/NE NC coast. The remnants of Tropical Depression Nine are expected to move east, well offshore by late week. Meanwhile, a strong area of high pressure builds SE into the Mid-Atlantic and New England. As such, cooler, drier weather is expected. Highs in the lower 70s Wed, upper 60s Thu, upper 60s to lower 70s Fri, and lower 70s Sat are expected. However, will note that while most model guidance takes the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine out to sea, the EURO stalls the system and takes the remnants back into the Carolinas Sat behind the high. While this is a low possibility with little ensemble support, it cannot be ruled out. Regardless of the exact track of the low, the gradient winds increase Wed into Thu given the pressure gradient between the high to the north and low to the south. NE winds gusting up to 40 mph Wed and 30-35 mph Thu are expected along the coast with gusts up to 20-25 mph possible inland. The gradient wind lingers through late week across SE VA/NE NC with gusty winds possible along the coast through Fri. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 139 AM EDT Sunday... A mix of IFR and LIFR conditions have been noted across all terminals this morning. CIGS is the main concern this morning as low level clouds are continuing to move in across all terminals. These conditions will last through the 6z TAF period. Some patchy fog may develop later this morning that could cause brief Mvfr to IFR VIS restrictions. Winds tonight will remain light and variable. After sunrise CIGS should begin to lift to MVFR across all terminals. Some showers are possible across the far SE and should not affect the terminals. Winds will pick up out of the NE to 5 to 10 kt by mid to late morning. Outlook: Sub-VFR CIGs likely linger across the terminals Sun. There is a low chance for a few showers across SE VA/NE NC Sun. Periods of sub-VFR conditions are possible through the week with rain chances increasing Mon. && .MARINE... As of 325 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA conditions through the weekend. - Deteriorating conditions and building NE winds are likely next week, with the strongest winds expected Wednesday/Thursday. - Follow the latest information from the National Hurricane Center regarding the progress of Humberto and Tropical Depression 9. Latest analysis indicates 1012mb sfc low pressure just offshore of the Delmarva coast. A weak sfc boundary extends SSW just offshore of the SE VA/NE NC coast. Winds are NW 10-15kt, with some gusts to around 20 kt over the bay south of New Point Comfort. Seas are 2-3 ft, with waves 1- 2 ft. Noting a modest surge in the Ches Bay, as high pressure builds west of the waters. This surge allows some gusts to ~20 kt to persist through mid-morning, but still not anticipating predominate SCA conditions. Otherwise, weak high pressure continues to build in today and tonight. Winds turn to the NNE and diminish to 5-10 kt (highest lower bay and central/southern waters. Waves 1-2 ft, seas remain 2-3 ft. Attention then turns to the progression of Tropical Depression 9, possibly soon to be Tropical Cyclone Imelda. Emerging consensus amongst deterministic models and multi-model ensembles regarding the handling of this system, reflected well in the latest National Hurricane Center forecast track for the system, shows the system offshore of the east coast of Florida Monday, moving to a position ~200 miles off the SE Georgia/ N FL coast by Tuesday morning. As noted previously, this slower track allows for greater influence on TD9 from powerful Hurricane Humberto, a category 5 storm farther out in the central Atlantic early this morning. The latest track on Humberto shows the system increasing speed NW and remaining well offshore. Over the past few model cycles, the trend toward Humberto pulling TD9 farther and more abruptly offshore has steadily gained greater support, and that trend has continued with the 00z/28 cycle. However, we must caution this is still not yet a high confidence forecast, and continued vigilance with these systems is strongly advised. In any scenario, Humberto will send increasingly strong long- period swell toward the local waters for much of the first half of the week ahead. This will translate to building seas late tonight into Monday, with that trend to continue through midweek. The tightening pressure gradient between the tropical systems to the SE and strong 1032+mb sfc high pressure pushing SE across Quebec will lock in a prolonged period of elevated NE winds this week. These gusty winds will be in addition to the developing high surf across our area due to the sharpening gradient and the incoming strong E-SE swell. NE winds pick up to 15-20kt Monday and Monday night with seas increasing AOA 4-5ft. SCAs likely to be needed for tomorrow through late week. Winds and seas increase further Tuesday into Wednesday, with increasing potential for a period of gale force gusts early Wed morning, becoming more likely Wed afternoon into early Thursday. The strongest winds are expected over the southern coastal zones south of Cape Charles, including the adjacent Currituck Sound and the lower Chesapeake Bay. Seas are expected to build to 10-13 ft, with waves in the Bay 3-5 ft N and 5-6 ft S (6-8 ft at the mouth of the Bay). Winds gradually diminish by Friday, but headlines for elevated seas are expected to continue into next weekend. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 325 AM EDT Sunday... Tidal departures remain minimal with no coastal flooding expected through Tuesday morning. After that, expect anomalies to steadily increase, as strong high pressure slowly drops SE across Quebec, while Humberto and Tropical Depression 9 (or its remnant), move farther offshore. The tightening pressure gradient will bring a prolonged period of strong onshore flow, and a high likelihood of at least minor coastal flooding late Wed through Friday (with the possibility for significant coastal flooding later Wed and Thu). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RMM NEAR TERM...KMC/RMM SHORT TERM...RMM LONG TERM...RMM AVIATION...HET/KMC MARINE...LKB/MAM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...