825 FXUS61 KBUF 280605 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 205 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building east and then south across the Great Lakes will lead to an extended period of dry weather through the entire week. Warm daytime temperatures through Tuesday will cool to more seasonable levels by Wednesday, then trend back above normal later in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A stout ridge of high pressure will build east across the Great Lakes from the Mississippi Valley through tonight, with the center of the sfc high squarely over the forecast area by daybreak Monday. This will maintain fair dry weather areawide, with typical nocturnal valley fog early this AM and again tonight. Daytime temperatures today will be several degrees warmer compared to yesterday. The warm airmass (850mb temps around +14C) will remain overhead tonight, so while ample radiational cooling conditions may result in some low 40s (F) across the higher terrain inland from the lakes, there remains little to no risk of frost anywhere. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Sfc ridge wedged in over the region will continue the stretch of fair dry weather Monday. Max T's will be found well above normal with 70s to low/mid 80s. A moisture starved cold front will drop south out of Canada on Tuesday. While dry weather will continue, cooler air will be filtering into the Lower Lakes supporting cooler Max T's across the North Country and Lake Plains south of Lake Ontario. Highs mainly in the 70s. Strong sfc ridge (1032 mb) will build quickly southeast Wednesday with continued dry weather. It will be cooler with highs near normal for this time of year, with 60s across the area. Wednesday night...clear skies areawide should support good radiational cooling overnight. Given the cooler airmass filtering into the region, H850 T's falling down into the single digits, we will see the potential for Min T's to be found in the 30s inland from the lakes. We may even see some 'frost' but this may be limited due to some wind flow because center of the sfc high remains to our north. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Sfc high pressure settles south and east over the Lower Lakes and Northeast Thursday maintaining fair dry weather for the rest of the work week. A look at the weekend...while there is some uncertainty it appears that high pressure will 'likely' maintain the prolonged stretch of dry weather. Temperatures will also return back above normal after a brief stint of near normal temps. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mainly VFR through the 06z TAF cycle as strong high pressure builds into the region from the west. IFR or lower valley fog will expand across the Southern Tier through about 13z this morning, then recede and dissipate thereafter. Radiational fog outside of the valleys this morning should be limited with slightly more gradient wind in place. Another round of valley fog expected tonight, though with the sfc high moving directly overhead winds will be light enough for some radiation fog in other locations. Low confidence in areal extent though greatest chances will be east and southeast of Lake Ontario (KFZY). Outlook... Monday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Valley fog and local IFR possible each late night through the morning hours. && .MARINE... Quiet marine conditions with variable flow and winds mainly 10 knots or less are expected on lower Great Lakes as high pressure maintains its influence through Monday. Northeast winds will slowly begin to increase throughout the day Tuesday as Canadian high pressure builds south into the region and a tropical system churns off the East Coast creating some chop, especially on Lake Ontario. A stronger push of cooler air into the region will cause northeast winds to sharply increase Tuesday night into Wednesday night with speeds of 15 to 25 knots, with a period of SCA conditions expected, especially on Lake Ontario. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PP NEAR TERM...PP SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...PP MARINE...JJR/PP/TMA