547 FXUS61 KALY 280455 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1255 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A coastal storm over the mid Atlantic region may bring some spotty light showers to areas well south and east of Albany tonight. Otherwise dry conditions will prevail through the next week with high pressure in control. Temperatures will be above normal through early next week, then trending cooler and more seasonable mid to late week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key Message: - Above normal temperatures through early next week. Discussion: High level clouds will continue to increase this afternoon into this evening, as a coastal storm near SE Virginia tracks northeast off the mid Atlantic coast. There looks to be just enough forcing to bring a few light showers to some areas south/east of Albany and mainly Dutchess/Litchfield County where 30-50% PoPs are mentioned late this evening into the early overnight hours. Any measurable rain will be light < 0.10". Otherwise it will be mostly cloudy with some clearing across northern areas late as the system moves further away from the coast. Lows temperatures will be mild in the 50s to near 60F. Clouds will decrease from NW to SE Sun morning as a westerly flow develops. Temperatures will get quite warm in the afternoon with good mixing and an anomalously warm air mass in place (850 mb temperatures anomalies of +1 to +2 STDEV). Highs should reach the lower 80s in most lower elevations with some mid 80s south of Albany. It will also feel humid with dewpoints in the lower/mid 60s. A weak cool front will move through late Sun afternoon into the evening, which will result in lowering humidity and cooler temperatures for Sun night. Lows will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. High pressure to build back in on Mon bringing dry conditions and plenty of sunshine. It will be slightly cooler and less humid than Sun, but high temperatures will still be above normal. Tranquil conditions persist Mon night with high pressure in place. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Message: - Temperatures trending below normal mid to late next week. Discussion: A strong/large area of high pressure building south from Canada will push a dry cold front southward across the area on Tue. Prior to the front it will still be mild (highs mid/upper 70s) Tue afternoon, but then a cooling trend will occur behind the front Tue night through the rest of the work week. Temperatures will likely be below normal through Fri. Northerly winds will be a bit breezy late Tue into Wed prior to the high building in. Frost may occur Wed/Thu nights, especially over higher terrain areas. Ridging both at the surface and aloft will be the dominant feature through the period, so no precipitation is expected. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06z Monday...VFR conditions are primarily expected at the terminals for the upcoming TAF. Primary concerns initially will be a low threat of rain showers at KPOU, and mist/fog at KGFL/KPSF. Scattered rain showers will remain in the vicinity of KPOU through about 28/07z, but should remain VFR in nature as rain will be light. Brief drops to LIFR visibilities/ceilings will continue this morning at KGFL due to development of fog with decreasing clouds aloft, and continue to be addressed with a TEMPO group. While clouds will be slow to exit KPSF, have maintained the previous TEMPO group mentioning brief IFR conditions. Confidence in seeing fog here is low unless clouds can move out before sunrise. Any fog/mist should dissipate by 12-13z with a return to VFR conditions through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will generally be from the S/SE at 5kt or less through tonight, increasing to 5-10 kt by mid-morning from the southwest. Winds then veer to the W/NW behind a cold frontal passage during the early afternoon, with a few gusts to around 15-20 kt possible at ALB/PSF. Winds then veer to the N/NW within the last few hours of the TAF period, with any gusts diminishing as we approach sunset. Outlook... Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...Speck