459 FXUS64 KBRO 252329 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 629 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 622 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 -Low rain chances will continue through much of he forecast period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1206 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 We are watching a cold front, whose leading edge is currently located in the lower Valley, continue to linger through this evening before finally moving south out of the area overnight/early Friday morning. Along the front will be the main focus for any showers and thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Due to the speed of the front moving through, rain chances have decreased, especially across the mid to upper Valley and the Ranchlands. CAMs still depict the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, primarily in the mid to lower Valley. While precipitation chances and totals have trended downward we could still see isolated pockets of heavy rain leading to nuisance flooding on roadways and low lying areas. Rain chances will continue to decrease after sunset. If the front pushes through earlier, rain chances will end earlier as well. Overnight tonight, patchy fog may develop, especially across the Ranchlands. Friday, drier air moves in with generally rain free conditions across much of the CWA through Saturday, though portions of the lower Valley could still some isolated showers through midday Friday. On Sunday a weak coastal trough develops with rain chances increasing slightly (15-20%), mainly right along the coast. Headed into the work week, a shortwave moving over the region will keep rain chances in the forecast, primarily along the seabreeze, through the remainder of the forecast period. Near normal temperatures will continue through the middle of next week with highs in the low to mid 90s and overnight lows in the mid 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 Scattered to broken VFR conditions continue at this time across all terminals and are expected to remain so throughout the TAF cycle, outside of the low potential (20-30%) for a passing shower or two detailed in the PROB30 for KBRO late tonight as the frontal boundary lingers nearby. Light and variable, or calm, winds are likely tonight before picking up to a gentle northeasterly breeze by tomorrow afternoon, around 5-10 knots with gusts of 15-20 knots possible along with a few high clouds. Additionally, there is a low possibility of brief fog at KBRO around sunrise. && .MARINE... Issued at 1206 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 Generally favorable conditions are expected with mostly light to moderate winds and seas of 1 to 3 feet. Will continue to see increased chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially on the southern waters, through early Friday. Winds and seas may be elevated near any showers or thunderstorms and waterspouts will also be possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 75 91 74 91 / 40 20 10 10 HARLINGEN 72 93 70 93 / 30 20 0 10 MCALLEN 75 98 74 96 / 20 10 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 72 97 72 96 / 20 10 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 87 80 87 / 40 20 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 89 74 89 / 30 20 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68-McGinnis LONG TERM....68-McGinnis AVIATION...65-Irish