404 FXUS64 KAMA 251845 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 145 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 143 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 -Quiet weather for the most part over the next 7 days. -Low chance <20% of thunderstorms in the western Panhandles Saturday and Sunday evening. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 143 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 A pretty quiet short term forecast as a trough over CA tracks south over the Las Vegas, NV area tonight. This will transition to more of a cut-off closed low tonight as most of the US becomes more under a broad scale high pressure system. A second cut-off low/trough will also be set up over the Tennessee Valley, but will have no impact on our area. The main focus of the system over the southern NV/CA area will be the moisture transport out ahead. And right now its'set up far enough west that the majority of that moisture will be over the eastern AZ and NM area. The result for our area will be mostly clear skies today and tonight, with some increasing high clouds on Friday. Temperatures will be warmer under the overall influence of the high pressure. Highs tomorrow look to be in the mid 80s to near 90 in a few warm spots. Weber && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 143 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 We'll be keeping an eye on that system mentioned in the short term. It's expected to track very slowly to the east over the weekend. This will allow for a slight chance (20%) of storms for the far western Panhandles with less than 10% chance for the central and eastern Panhandles for the Saturday and Sunday afternoon/evening time period. The cut-off low will gradually be absorbed into a large scale positively tilted trough that will move in from the Pacific. As it's absorbed into this southwest flow it's progged to take a negative tilt out by the Four Corners, which will likely reduce the amount of moisture being drawn up from the eastern Pacific and Gulf area. It's also set up to become significantly weakened into a subtle wave by the time it clips the northwest Panhandles on Monday. This will continue the narrative of mild to warm temperatures over the weekend and on Monday, followed by a warm up on Tuesday and Wednesday as the ridge of high pressure rebuilds over the area. Weber && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours with mostly clear skies and overall variable winds in the 5-7kt range. Weber && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...89 LONG TERM....89 AVIATION...89