962 FXUS61 KBTV 251739 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 139 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Several rounds of rain showers with embedded heavier downpours are anticipated today across northern New York and all of Vermont. Rainfall amounts will vary from a quarter of an inch to localized amounts over one inch possible. In addition, localized southeast gap winds of 25 to 35 mph will be possible along the Green Mountain Spine. Temperatures will only be in the 60s today, but warmer and drier weather returns this weekend, including some highs approaching daily records on Sunday. Nights may feature low clouds and patchy dense fog, especially in valleys locations, into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 627 AM EDT Thursday...Just a quick morning update to adjust rain chances today to better match what's being reported from ground truth and what the high res models are suggesting for the day today. Hard to depict in PoPs, but thinking this current wave will let up in a few hours and be replaced by another round shortly after, that one a little more convective in the afternoon warmth and instability. Previous discussion...A closed upper level low pressure draped across the Great Lakes and a surface low pressure system crossing New England today will bring several rounds of rain showers to the forecast area. Models continue to estimate precipitable water values as high as 1.50-2.00 inches throughout the day, warm cloud layer depths reaching around 11,000- 13,000 feet, and a 500mb level jet 75-100 knots nosing into the area in the afternoon and evening. A warm frontal boundary moving south to north over the course of the day will provide ample forcing to produce showers with embedded heavier downpours. A few rumbles of thunder are possible in the afternoon, but CAPE values continue to look unfavorable for widespread convection. Our forecast precipitation amounts are largely unchanged, though there still exists a wide range in model guidance QPF. Thinking this morning through tonight will feature 0.35-1.25" of rainfall with localized higher amounts in heavy downpours and perhaps slightly lower amounts in mild downslope shadowing. A low level jet around 850mb could reach up to 35-40 knots, which continues to indicate the potential for localized gusts 25 to 35 mph along gaps in the Green Mountains and in downslope winds on western slopes. Highs today will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, fairly seasonable despite the rain. Upper level trough will shift into the Ohio Valley overnight tonight as the surface low pressure and core of moisture speed northeastward and away from our area. We should see lingering showers thanks to a weak trailing cold frontal boundary. Highest chance of showers is in mountains and along international border, nearest to an upper shortwave to our north. Conditions will remain mild and humid overnight due to very weak cold advection with the potential for low clouds and patchy fog developing and restricting visibilities on the roads. Propelling off mild temperatures Friday morning, Friday afternoon temperatures are forecast to reach the 70s ahead of a secondary cold front, though highs could end up being lower than forecast if we have more widespread showers and clouds as an upper level shortwave lifts north out of the Ohio Valley and passes near to our forecast area. At the moment, it's looking like these features could produce a few additional showers, about 15-55% chance, though precipitation amounts will likely be minimal. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 218 AM EDT Thursday...Increasing pressure, falling temperatures, recent rainfall, light or calm winds, and breaks in clouds could spell valley fog for Friday night as precipitation chances decrease dramatically. Lows overnight could reach as low as the 40s and lower 50s as the core of high pressure builds across Quebec, Ontario, and northern New York, shifting eastward during the day Saturday. This will result in a pleasant and mostly sunny day with highs in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 239 AM EDT Thursday...A prolonged dry spell is expected as the southern fringe of the westerlies in the northern jet stream returns to our region, promoting northwest flow and lack of storminess. At the start of the period, there are slight chances of showers in our far southern areas overnight Saturday. This possible precipitation would be associated with a weak coastal low that would only need to watched if it tracks on the northern periphery of model spread. Temperatures will initially be well above normal on Sunday, and slightly less so on Monday, as low level west-southwest flow transports air from the Midwest where a warm upper level ridge will be centered. Mid level air will be more anomalously warm than the low level temperatures related to the aforementioned ridge, which should limit convective chances; whatever instability and terrain- driven clouds develop should be capped by the warm air aloft. A very weak, dry cold front will pass through in the Monday - Monday night timeframe. Winds will flip to the north and will likely remain that way through Wednesday as seasonably cool air filters into the region and Canadian high pressure gradually builds into the region. As such, each day will trend cooler than the day before, with somewhat increasing spread as well as degree of cold air advection varies amongst model guidance such that the cooldown could be more modest or more substantial than forecast. Most likely high temperatures by Wednesday will range through the low to mid 60s for most locations, which would be near normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 18Z Friday...A wide range of flight conditions this aftn from VFR at PBG/SLK and RUT to intervals of IFR at MSS with MVFR cigs at EFK/BTV and MPV. Expecting very changeable flight conditions through 00z this evening with intervals of IFR vis/cigs likely in the heavier convective showers. The greatest probability of IFR in the 60 to 70% chance is at MPV/MSS with 30 to 40% chance at EFK/SLK. As surface low pres tracks directly overhead, wind fields should become lighter and this should allow for additional IFR CIGS/VIS to develop in areas of fog/mist and drizzle, especially our mountain taf sites. However, sfc low pres will lift to our northeast by 03z and southwest to westerly winds will redevelop across our taf sites, resulting in more areas of stratus/mist, instead of fog and LIFR conditions. Have kept with this idea overnight, but confidence is low in timing and exact vis/cigs categories. Greatest potential will be SLK/MPV/EFK with mostly VFR at PBG due to westerly downslope. Conditions slowly improve after 12z Friday. Outlook... Friday Night: VFR. Patchy BR. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Storm NEAR TERM...Storm SHORT TERM...Storm LONG TERM...Kutikoff AVIATION...Taber