722 FXUS63 KAPX 251732 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 132 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showery at times today. Lesser shower chances tonight into Friday. - Trending drier with anomalous warmth this weekend and into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 224 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 Pattern Synopsis: Broad cutoff low pressure over the central and eastern Great Lakes will slowly meander eastward with time today into tonight. Ample moisture and cyclonic flow will allow for discrete, diurnal convection to materialize once again, with particular focus on the northeast lower Michigan area. Additional fog development possible tonight as moisture slowly begins to move out of the area... albeit, probably to a lesser spatial extent. Forecast Details: Currently socked in with low clouds and fog in a lot of locales, with most broad shower coverage hovering over Lake Huron, sending a couple showers to those coastal areas of northeast lower. Another area being drivel by convergent cyclonic flow has allowed for some more convectively agitated showers to materialize over the Grand Traverse Bay area. Anticipating this activity to continue its trek eastward, and with the breakdown of forcing aloft, those NW lower showers will taper off considerably closer to daybreak. Will have to wait for diurnal heating to scour out the low cloud and fog. Anticipating some sun to peek through the clouds this afternoon as temperatures warm into the mid 60s to lower 70s. This should be enough to force some additional afternoon shower activity, particularly across northeast lower where forcing and surface convergence will likely remain greatest. Not anticipating anything overly heavy, and these showers will impact a rather small area. Honestly, most of the area probably holds dry this afternoon otherwise. Heading into tonight, shower coverage set to decrease again with loss of daytime instability. Lingering, but exiting, low level moisture may permit some additional fog development tonight, but not anticipating an overly widespread footprint with that activity across northern lower due to moisture set to clear out (including potential for clearing skies). For the eastern Yoop, things start out dry with a clearing trend, but a final piece of shortwave troughing will pass through the region later tonight and may bring a returning shower chance. Lows tonight 45-55, coolest in the interior. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 224 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 In the wake of the departing cutoff, may still contend with areas of northern lower east of US 131 getting clipped by the passing wing of shortwave troughing pivoting around the closed system and drumming up an afternoon shower Friday... but the bigger story likely becomes a potentially prolonged dry stretch. The pattern shifts with us returning back into a ridging regime Saturday and through the remainder of the forecast period. Caveat to consider is that we will be under some relatively quick zonal flow aloft... so may need to check and see if any impulses can ride that corridor of flow and sneak in a shower chance. For the time being, guidance is quite bearish to that idea. As such, anticipation is that we realize a dry and summer-like stretch of temperatures this weekend and into next week... with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s being status quo Saturday through Monday. May contend with an additional backdoor front with time next week as some disturbances try to suppress the ridging regime, which may put us into play for another period of dry easterly flow and cooler temperatures midweek and beyond, particularly across the eastern half of the APX footprint. With most of the recent rainfall remaining discrete, will have to keep an eye on fire weather parameters as we once again embark on a dry and warm spell... coupled with debris littering the forest floors from this spring's ice storm. More details to come. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 131 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 Cig's are expected to clear over the next few hours, resulting in VFR conditions this afternoon and evening. A boundary will move southward across the region tonight through Friday afternoon with chances of SHRA expected mainly for KCIU. Cig's lower to MVFR heights at KCIU and KAPN with the potential of some low embedded IFR/LIFR Cu at KCIU between 0600 and 1200Z. KTVC, KPLN, and KMBL are expected to remain VFR through the remainder of the forecast period. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAD LONG TERM...HAD AVIATION...SJC