154 
FXUS63 KTOP 251727
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1227 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and quiet pattern for the next week. Temperatures stay a bit 
above average.

- Patchy shallow fog most mornings, especially today and
  tomorrow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

An amplified upper pattern is set up across the CONUS this morning, 
trending towards somewhat of an Omega block that will lock in mild 
and quiet weather for the next week. Upper ridging currently over 
the Rockies will inch eastward the next few days before 
strengthening over the Plains this weekend. Surface ridging will 
remain present nearby, keeping light winds and clear skies in place. 
All this will allow for warm days and moderately cool nights, with 
highs in the 80s and lows in the 50s most days. Broad subsidence and 
lack of deep moisture will keep rain chances near zero. 

The only potentially impactful weather will likely be some patchy 
ground fog most mornings, given favorable radiational cooling setups 
with the light winds and clear skies. Fog is most likely today and 
tomorrow when high pressure will be closest, but could see some even 
into early next week. Forecast soundings keep moisture very shallow, 
so typical for this time of year, fog should be most prevalent in 
lower-lying areas and near bodies of water. As a result, any denser 
fog is expected to stay quite isolated.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Have seen diurnal cu develop on satellite, so expect that to
dissipate with sunset. Otherwise, light and variable winds
likely turn calm overnight. This may allow shallow ground fog to
develop before sunrise, but confidence in impacts to terminals
and timing of any vis reductions are too low for inclusion at 
this time. VFR outside of fog formation.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Picha