608 FXUS65 KTFX 251712 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1112 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - It will be hot, dry, and windy today with dry weather continuing through Sunday. - It will be cooler Friday through the weekend with a windy day on Friday. - Precipitation chances return early next week. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 546 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: Today there is an upper-level ridge over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana which will allow temperatures to warm up to well above seasonal averages with dry weather. This evening due to an upper-level trough combined with a surface cold front that begins to dip down from Canada it will be windy across North-central Montana. On Friday the weak upper-level trough remains in place over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This combined with the cold front will bring temperatures back down closer to seasonal averages with dry weather. On Friday it will be windy across North- central and Central Montana due to a strong surface pressure gradient and strong mid and upper-level winds. On Saturday an upper- level ridge builds back in over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Saturday it will be windy along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains due to a strong surface pressure gradient. On Sunday the upper-level ridge remains over North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring another warm and dry day to the area on Sunday. Monday through Wednesday an upper-level trough slowly moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring daily chances for showers to the area Monday through Wednesday with cooler temperatures. -IG - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: There is a 30 - 50% chance for wind gusts of 40 mph or greater along the plains adjacent to the Rocky Mountain Front today. There is a 60 - 90% chance for wind gusts of 40 mph or greater along the Rocky Mountain Front today through Saturday. There is a 50 - 70% chance for wind gusts of 40 mph or greater along the plains adjacent to the Rocky Mountain Front on Friday. There is a 20 - 50% chance for wind gusts of 40 mph or greater across the rest of North-central and Central Montana on Friday. There is a 20 - 50% chance for wind gusts of 40 mph or greater along the plains adjacent to the Rocky Mountain Front on Saturday. Monday through Wednesday there remains some uncertainty with regards to precipitation amounts and location. However there is a 40 - 80% chance for a quarter inch of rain or greater in Southwestern Montana with the highest chances in the mountains. Across North-central and Central Montana there is a 20 - 50% chance for a quarter inch of precipitation or greater with the highest chances along the Rocky Mountain Front. -IG && .AVIATION... 25/18Z TAF Period Mostly clear skies with south to southwesterly breezes are expected through this evening. Then a fast moving Pacific weather system and attendant cold front will bring a period of gusty west to northwesterly winds and increased mid- and higher level cloudiness tonight into Friday. VFR conditions are generally expected for the duration of the TAF period. - RCG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 51 75 48 82 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 46 68 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 50 74 44 79 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 44 74 39 79 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 32 69 29 71 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 42 74 38 76 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 48 73 44 81 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 50 72 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls