496 FXUS62 KRAH 251706 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 105 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A surface cold front and an upper level trough will hold to our west through early Friday, then both will push slowly eastward through the Appalachians and into the Carolinas through the weekend, bringing wet and unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 105 PM Thursday... Hot and humid east, mainly cloudy with additional showers and storms in the west this afternoon spreading east tonight. There was a differential heating boundary over the Piedmont this afternoon. The boundary depicted the cloudy skies and cooler temperatures in the west from the sunny and hot conditions in the east. Cumulus have been developing recently and there have been some isolated showers. It appears there will be a chance of showers/storms across the eastern and northern Piedmont and Sandhills associated with this feature in the next few hours. Strong heating with an uptick in instability will likely aid the developing convection. Additional showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected in the west into central NC Piedmont later this afternoon into the night. A few storms may become strong with gusty winds to 40-50 mph the main hazard. Isolated heavy rainfall will also be likely. Lows tonight will generally be in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the warm sector. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 105 PM Thursday... Continued chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures cooling with the increased clouds and showers. It appears that an outflow boundary will slide into the southern sections of our region early Friday. This occurs as the low pressure in the mid levels to our west over the TN Valley starts to close off. It appears the main synoptic front will be over the Appalachians Friday morning, then slowly push into the Foothills and Piedmont late Friday and Friday night. This will mean a good chance of showers and thunderstorms over most of the region Friday and Friday night. Some locally heavy rainfall is possible but hard to pin point the main areas of concern given the various boundaries expected. Overall, expect mostly cloudy skies and cooler highs in the upper 70s NW to mid 80s SE. Lows in the mid 60s to near 70. &&. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 AM Thursday... * Prolonged cloudy conditions and periods of rain likely to continue off and on into early next week. * Although tropical development is becoming likely for 94L, timing, track, and intensity all have a high degree of uncertainty Sunday into Monday. Forecast confidence remains high on widespread rain for Saturday as the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic will be in a favorable position relative the the slow moving trough and the upper jet. For the most part, this should be a favorable soaking rain for the forecast region, but with some modest elevated instability to tap into, some periods of heavy rain and thunder will be possible. For now, available guidance suggests 0.25" to around 1" is most likely for most of the forecast area and pockets of higher totals of 2" are possible from 12z Sat to 12z Sun. The time period of the greatest forecast uncertainty is Sun through Tues. This is stemming from a combination of low predictability features, such as the cutoff low and how it evolves during this time and invest 94L. From an ensemble approach, most guidance slowly shifts the plume of anomalous moisture eastward towards the I-95 corridor Sun and then off the coast by Mon, but periods of light to moderate rain still appear possible during this time with closer proximity to the mid/upper low and weak upper divergence. As for Invest 94L there appears to be loosely two scenarios beginning to take shape and is largely a timing uncertainty on how quickly it lifts northward Sun into Mon. A slower solution results in 94L meandering off the Southeast Coast before getting kicked back out east with strengthening southwesterly flow aloft and increasing shear over the western Atlantic. In contrast, a quicker solution results in 94L getting pulled north quickly and more likely to reach the Carolina coast between Mon and Mon night. The slower solution is the favored solution among latest guidance, but a trend to watch in subsequent forecast runs. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 650 AM Thursday... Central NC will stay within a strengthening SW flow today and tonight, ahead of a slow-moving surface front and upper level trough sitting to our NW. Rain chances will increase today, mainly at western terminals, before spreading E tonight. At KINT/KGSO: A period of light showers is possible through 13z in the Triad region, along with a chance for brief MVFR vsbys and IFR/LIFR cigs. Otherwise, VFR conditions will dominate after 14z- 15z, then scattered showers and storms will move into the Triad area after 19z, bringing the possibility for strong/shifting winds with height and downpours producing MVFR vsbys. A few showers will linger from 00z to 06z, then MVFR to IFR cigs are expected to develop after 07z. Surface winds will be light/variable through mid morning, then from the SW 8-14 kts gusting to 15-20 kts through 00z before becoming light from the SW through tonight. At KRDU, VFR conditions are expected to dominate, with periods of mid level clouds passing overhead. There is a chance for showers and storms starting in the late afternoon, mainly after 21z, lasting into the evening, but coverage should be lower than what is expected further W in the Triad. MVFR conditions trending to IFR are expected starting after 08z. Surface winds will be from the SW, mostly under 10 kts, but with gusts to 15-20 kts in the afternoon. At KRWI/KFAY, VFR conditions are expected to dominate, although fair skies should allow development of patchy fog toward sunrise, mainly MVFR but may briefly drop to IFR. Any fog should lift by 14z. An isolated shower or storm may drift near these sites late in the TAF valid period, starting mid evening. Surface winds will be from the SW, mostly under 10 kts, but with gusts to 15-20 kts in the afternoon. Looking beyond 12z Fri, a few showers and isolated storms are likely to persist areawide through daybreak, and there is a good chance for sub-VFR stratus or fog until mid morning Fri. As our weather becomes increasingly wet and unsettled heading into the weekend, the chance for sub-VFR conditions will increase and remain high Sat through Mon with numerous showers and storms possible. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...RAH SHORT TERM...RAH LONG TERM...Swiggett AVIATION...CBL/Hartfield