383 FXUS61 KBUF 251705 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 105 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will continue to move east of the area through Friday, with showers gradually ending from west to east overnight through Friday morning. High pressure will then build into the eastern Great Lakes region Saturday and likely remain in place through most of next week, with another long stretch of dry weather expected. Temperatures will remain warm through early next week before cooler weather arrives around the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... A complex frontal zone stretching from New England to the Southeast US will continue to move east and off the eastern seaboard through Friday. Several baroclinic waves will continue to ripple northeast along the boundary, with the final wave bringing some rain to Central NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region this afternoon. Farther west, a few diurnal showers will develop this afternoon and evening along subtle boundaries from lake influences and terrain. Many of the high-res model runs suggest a band of showers developing along the typical convergence zone between Lake Erie and Lake Ontario breezes across the Niagara Frontier late this afternoon and evening. If this materializes, it will locally enhance showers over the Buffalo Metro area. The mid level trough axis will cross the eastern Great Lakes tonight through Friday morning. Ascent from the trough coupled with northwest upslope flow and modest lake instability will produce a few scattered showers overnight through early Friday morning, mainly southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario and across higher terrain. Most of the showers will end by mid to late morning Friday, with another shower possible later in the day across the North Country east of Watertown. Clouds will hold strong through Friday morning, with increasing sunshine later in the day especially on the lake plains. Expect areas of fog to develop overnight through Friday morning, especially across higher terrain where low stratus will intersect the hilltops. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A flattening ridge of Canadian high pressure will provide dry weather through Sunday. A weak closed low drifting northward across the Mid-Atlantic states may occasionally cause additional high cloud cover to drift over the forecast area, though otherwise no direct impacts are anticipated. Day to day temperatures will trend upwards as the axis of the sfc ridge gradually becomes oriented southeast of the region through the weekend. Daytime highs mainly in the low/mid 70s Saturday will warm to to the upper 70s and low 80s by Sunday, though overnight lows will remain largely in the 50s outside of the higher terrain areas. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Dry weather will extend through most if not all of next week as a blocking ridge of high pressure amplifies across the northeastern CONUS and central Canada. Outside of potentially some added high cloud cover, this will in all likelihood preclude any impacts across the forecast area from the complex tropical weather environment expected to develop off the Southeast coast. While a trough digging south across eastern Canada will help usher in a more a seasonable airmass temperature-wise by midweek, the overhead ridge will only exacerbate the regional drought. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A wave of low pressure moving northeast along a frontal zone will bring some rain to Central NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region for a few hours this afternoon. Farther west, scattered showers will continue across the western end of the state this afternoon and evening. The rain will produce localized VSBY restrictions at times. Areas of MVFR CIGS will also continue, with some IFR across higher terrain and near Lake Ontario. Tonight through Friday morning, a mid level trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes and combine with northwest upslope flow and modest lake instability to produce a few more scattered showers. Widespread low stratus will also continue, and in fact expand and lower overnight, with IFR CIGS becoming widespread late tonight through Friday morning. The low stratus will intersect the hills with areas of fog/mountain obscuration across higher terrain overnight through Friday morning. Any lingering scattered showers southeast of the lakes and across higher terrain will end later Friday morning. Widespread IFR in low stratus will gradually improve, with most areas returning to VFR by mid to late afternoon. Outlook... Friday night through Saturday morning...Areas of IFR in fog. Saturday afternoon through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... West winds will increase into the 10-15 knot range on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario tonight through Friday evening behind a departing cold front, producing a light to moderate chop on the lakes. High pressure will then build into the lower Great Lakes this weekend, with light winds and flat wave action. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock NEAR TERM...Hitchcock SHORT TERM...PP LONG TERM...PP AVIATION...Hitchcock MARINE...Hitchcock