137 FXUS61 KBUF 251051 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 651 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... The next wave of low pressure will bring another round of showers through the region today. Some shower activity will linger into tonight but drier weather will begin to return Friday. High pressure builds into the Lower Lakes Friday night bringing a prolonged period of quite weather well into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Initial wave of showers will ever so slowly push off to our northeast early this morning. We should see a brief reprieve (lull) with dwindling shower coverage as the best low-level forcing exits the region. Otherwise...abundant low-level moisture will allow for areas of fog and keep much of the area blanketed in low stratus. The next wave of low pressure found over the western Kentucky will quickly head northeast into the Ohio Valley this morning. Showers will once again begin to spread into the area by mid-morning, with the heaviest precipitation focused across the S. Tier through the Finger Lakes region, and then into the North Country by later this afternoon. In terms of thunderstorm potential...have mentioned a slight chance east of the Genesee Valley, but low probability (< 20%) given the lack of instability (< 400 J/kg). Across far western New York, shower coverage will be sparse with the potential that some areas could see very little in the way of precipitation. That said...with the passage of the sfc low the cold front will get dragged east of the region by this evening. We should see a gradual decrease in shower coverage from west to east. Tonight...lingering low-level moisture and some cooling aloft behind the front (H850T's +10C to +11C) will lead to the potential for some showers in the favored upslope areas east of the lakes. Given saturated low-levels, there will also be some fog possible which could become locally dense in spots. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A flattening 500mb trough axis over the forecast area to open the period Friday morning will shift east into New England by the afternoon. With some lingering low level moisture, minor lake enhancement (850mb temps around 10C) and upslope flow, there could be a few additional rain showers particularly across the N. Country and SE of the lakes earlier in the day. Otherwise, a flattening ridge of Canadian high pressure will provide dry weather through Sunday. A weak closed low drifting northward across the Mid-Atlantic states may occasionally cause additional high cloud cover to drift over the forecast area, though otherwise no direct impacts are anticipated. Day to day temperatures will trend upwards as the axis of the sfc ridge gradually becomes oriented southeast of the region through the weekend. Daytime highs mainly in the low/mid 70s Friday will warm to to the upper 70s and low 80s by Sunday, though overnight lows will remain largely in the 50s outside of the higher terrain areas. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Dry weather will extend through most if not all of next week as a blocking ridge of high pressure amplifies across the northeastern CONUS and central Canada. Outside of potentially some added high cloud cover, this will in all likelihood preclude any impacts across the forecast area from the complex tropical weather environment expected to develop off the Southeast coast. While a trough digging south across eastern Canada will help usher in a more a seasonable airmass temperature-wise by midweek, the overhead ridge will only exacerbate the regional drought. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Low clouds and fog will become an issues at some terminals behind this wave of low pressure with IFR-LIFR early this morning. The second wave of rain showers will approach and cross the region today, with IFR/LIFR conditions proving to MVFR. There will remain a low chance (< 20%) for a few rumbles of thunder this afternoon within weak instability profiles. Tonight...rain showers will decrease in coverage behind the front but will still be possible in the favor upslope areas east of the lakes. Additionally...there will be some fog/stratus given lingering low-level moisture. Outlook... Friday...VFR/MVFR with a few lingering showers. Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... The next weak wave of low pressure will cross the region today, with some continued modest chop ( 1-3 foot waves) on the lakes. With the passage of this low, a cold front will then sweep through the lakes. We may see a bit of an uptick in winds but conditions will likely remain below SCA levels. Surface high pressure passes by to the north Friday night and then off into the Canadian maritimes Saturday. Light winds and wave action will prevail through the entire weekend. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...PP LONG TERM...PP AVIATION...AR MARINE...AR