552 FXUS63 KMKX 250848 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 348 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog in river valleys and other low lying areas through early this morning and possibly again tonight. - Above normal temperatures return late week into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 348 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 Today through Friday: Areas of lingering low clouds mainly east of Madison early this morning should gradually improve by mid-morning, as low pressure pulls away to the east. Patchy fog in river valleys and other low lying areas is expected through early this morning, with improvement after sunrise. Could see a similar round of fog tonight into early Friday under high pressure. Temperatures will be a little milder today than yesterday, given more sunshine expected and warmer temps aloft. Temps will warm even more tomorrow ahead of a frontal boundary dropping towards the area from the north. It does look like the front will make it into at least the northern forecast area by the evening hours, likely stalling somewhere between I-94 and the WI/IL border tomorrow night. Clouds will likely increase as the front moves into the area, but no precipitation is currently expected given a lot of dry air above about 5 kft. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 348 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 Saturday through Wednesday: 500 mb cluster analysis remains in decent agreement with showing an anomalous 500 mb ridge axis gradually developing over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada during this period. This will generally help steer weather systems to the north of the area during most of this period. There is a dry surface trough that should move east toward the area and washes out later Saturday or Saturday night, with high pressure slowly pushing east into the region Sunday. This high should then strengthen to the northeast into next week. Ensembles continue to suggest a fairly dry period of weather as a result across the area. The building 500 mb ridge should also allow for gradual warm air advection to occur, which should result in above normal temperatures this weekend into most of next week. Highs should reach into the lower 80s, perhaps a little higher, for most of the area this weekend into early portions of next week. There may be an increasing easterly component to the winds by the middle to latter portions of next week, which may bring 70s in eastern parts of the area. This is supported by the NBM temperature spreads being relatively small, with ensembles also favoring these warm temperatures. For reference, normal highs for the September 27 to October 4 period are generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with normal lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Wood && .AVIATION... Issued 348 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 Areas of lingering MVFR ceilings mainly east of Madison early this morning should gradually improve by mid-morning, as low pressure pulls away to the east and daytime mixing also helps to raise cloud bases. Patchy fog in river valleys and other low lying areas is expected through early morning, with improvement after sunrise. Could see a similar round of fog tonight into early Friday under high pressure. North to northeast winds generally 10 knots or less today will become west to southwest 5 knots or less tonight. DDV && .MARINE... Issued 348 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 Gusty northerly winds will continue into early this morning, easing and becoming northwest as low pressure around 29.8 inches over the Ohio River Valley continues eastward. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 7 am CDT for the potential for lingering waves up to 4 feet. Patchy fog will be possible across the lake through at least this morning. Westerly winds are expected tonight as high pressure around 30.0 inches moves by just to the south. A frontal boundary will then drop into the area from the north on Friday, with winds becoming northerly across at least the northern two- thirds of the lake. Light southerly winds will prevail on Saturday. DDV && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ071-WIZ072 until 7 AM Thursday. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 AM Thursday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee