287 FXUS63 KMQT 250826 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 426 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy dense fog this morning. - A cold front brings a round of isolated light rain showers across the area. - A mostly dry and low impact weather pattern then continues with near to above average temperatures into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 426 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 Quiet and dry weather continues this morning as high pressure extends over the CWA. Where clearer skies have persisted over the interior W, temps have dropped into the 40s. Mainly 50s are observed elsewhere under the lingering insulating low cloud deck. Some patchy dense fog has developed overnight and is expected to continue through around sunrise. A transient shortwave ridge today allows for a warmer day in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Clearing skies are expected as the ridge pushes the lingering shortwave over Lower MI this morning to the SE. Attention then turns to an incoming cold front from the NW. This cold front crosses overhead this evening into Fri, trailing from a deeper sfc low over Hudson Bay. Model soundings indicate a lack of available moisture, primarily confined below 800 mb. That alongside very little instability limit coverage. With PWATs around 1.1", a few hundreths are possible in the isolated shra that do develop. Some breezy N to NE gusts up to 20-25 mph are likely behind the cold front, strongest near Lake Superior and in the Keweenaw. Temps then settle in the upper 40s to mid 50s tonight, warming up near normal on Fri in the upper 50s to 60s with brief weak high pressure passing overhead. A rinse and repeat is anticipated, this time on Sat as a sfc low travels from N Manitoba out over Hudson Bay and sends another cold front across the region. This also likely will struggle to produce an precip. High pressure builds back in on Sun, extending overhead through early next week as it shifts to Quebec. Alongside this, ridging aloft builds over the Great Lakes supporting a warmer and drier pattern into next week. Highs warm above normal in the upper 60s to 70s Sun/Mon, but remain warm in the 60s to low 70s much of next week. More opportunities for clear skies under high pressure at night provide better support for radiative cooling processes, so lows in the 40s to 50s are expected. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 123 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 Patchy fog and low stratus is already beginning to lead to restrictions at CMX and SAW tonight, and restrictions should set in at IWD through the night as well. The highest fog potential exists at CMX/IWD, while at SAW, guidance favors lower clouds off to the east retrograding back into the area. That may help to limit fog there. Regardless of how they get there, IFR or LIFR restrictions are expected at all terminals tonight into early Thursday morning. A gradual improvement to VFR is expected mid to late morning Thursday. A few rain showers may develop Thursday night, but restrictions are not expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 426 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 SW winds increase to 15-20 kts over the western half of the lake ahead of an approaching cold front this evening. Some gusts to 25 kts are expected near Isle Royale and between the park and the Keweenaw. These winds build waves up to 2-4 ft over the W by tonight, highest waves between Isle Royale and the Keweenaw. Winds veer NE behind the front tonight, increasing to 15-25 kts across the lake. As a result, 3-5 ft waves are expected over the S waters. Winds and waves then settle below 20 kts and 2 ft respectively from N to S on Fri as a weak high pressure briefly passes overhead. S winds increase Fri night into Sat ahead of another cold front, bringing W winds of 15-20 kts across the lake into Sat. WSW winds continue through Sun at 15 kts or less, then become E early next week with 20 kt or less winds likely persisting into mid next week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for LSZ162-263-264. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jablonski AVIATION...LC MARINE...Jablonski