050 FXUS61 KCLE 250619 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 219 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A surface low pressure system will move northeastward through tonight into eastern Canada. The upper level trough is currently over the Great Lakes region and will be slowly moving eastward through Friday. High pressure will build in for the weekend with a weak cold front moving through Sunday. Early next week, high pressure will build in north of the Great Lakes. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 8:02 PM EDT Update... Most of the forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model guidance. However, now expect nocturnal cooling amidst cloud breaks, abundant low-level moisture, and weak or calm surface winds to promote widespread fog formation, especially between midnight tonight and shortly after daybreak Thursday morning. Fog is then expected to dissipate by mid or late morning on Thursday as diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer occurs. The sensible weather forecast was updated accordingly. Please see discussion below for further details. Previous Discussion from 3:14 PM EDT... Upper level troughing is currently centered over the Great Lakes region and eastern Ontario and extend down into the mid Mississippi Valley and central Great Plains. This feature will be slowly moving eastward through Thursday night and into Friday as ridging starts to build into central CONUS. Currently, there is a broad area of precipitation across eastern Ohio into Pennsylvania that has been slowly progressing eastward. Generally there has been light rain with totals around 0.25", though within some of the more persistent and heavier areas of rain, totals have been around 0.50-0.75". Expectation is that this trend will continue, though the majority of the rainfall has already occured. A line of showers is starting to form along, and just east of the I-75 corridor and will be progressing eastward through the evening. This has shown higher returns than the showers to the east, so expect heavier rainfall and isolated convection, but within a short timeframe. Will need to keep an eye out for potential localized flooding, though the risk is low at this time. As the surface low pressure moves off to the northeast, PoPs will decrease from west to east tonight through Thursday morning. Another shortwave will be moving along the broader, upper level trough during the day Thursday, but with the trough moved to the east slightly, PoPs will be highest east of the I-71 corridor. Those PoPs will decrease Thursday afternoon into the evening as the upper level features progress to the east, with some lingering lake enhanced showers possible late Thursday night. Temperatures tonight will stay mild in the low 60s with Thursday seeing similar highs to today in the low to mid 70s and overnight lows dropping into the mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will build in briefly during the short term with quiet weather expected. There will be an upper level low stationed over east-central CONUS, that will keep some cloud cover over the eastern portion of the region, but should stay dry as all of the precipitation stays to the southeast. High temperatures for Friday and Saturday will be in the 70s with overnight lows down into the 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... On Sunday, upper level troughing will move across the northern Great Lakes and extend a surface cold front down through the region. Though, precipitation is not expected with the front as it passes through. High pressure will build in behind to start the week and no precipitation is expected for the remainder of the long term. Temperatures will follow a similar trend to the short term and highs will be in the 70s and overnight lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... The main concern for this TAF cycle is fog expansion early this morning. Many sites have already fallen into the 1/4 to 1 mile visibility range, and expect this to occur at most terminals by 09Z. KCLE and KERI may stay 1 to 3 miles, so fog is less certain there. The fog will dissipate in the 12 to 14Z timeframe, but expect MVFR cigs to persist at all sites until mid afternoon. Periodic showers will also impact KMFD, KCLE, KCAK, KYNG, and KERI from about 14 to 21Z as a wave of low pressure passes just SE of the region. The best chance for rain will occur at KYNG, but used at least VCSH at these other sites. Confidence is high that VFR will finally return areawide late this afternoon and evening. The clearing skies and continued low-level moisture and decreasing winds will lead to another potential fog set up tonight. At this time, only introduced some IFR visibilities at KCAK and KYNG, but more edits are likely with future evaluation. Light and variable winds early this morning will turn generally NW and increase to 5-10 knots by mid morning as a weak cold frontal boundary slides across the area. This front will slow in speed, so winds may stay more westerly at KYNG and KERI through the day, while generally WNW winds continue elsewhere. Outlook...Non-VFR possible with isolated rain showers and patchy fog through about daybreak Friday, especially in the eastern two-thirds of our region. Scattered rain showers with non-VFR possible Monday afternoon through evening. && .MARINE... Quiet conditions will continue on Lake Erie over the next 5 days. A weak cold front pushing across the lake this morning will veer winds to NW with speeds increasing to 10-15 knots. NW winds will decrease to 5-10 knots tonight before becoming light and variable Friday as high pressure builds across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Variable winds will then continue through the weekend with speeds averaging 5-10 knots as high pressure remains across the Ohio Valley until a stronger Canadian high dropping into Ontario and Quebec early next week allows for increasing NE winds Monday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...23 NEAR TERM...Jaszka/23 SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM...23 AVIATION...Garuckas MARINE...Garuckas