788 FXUS64 KCRP 250552 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1252 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1226 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 - Showers/storms move through this morning; capable of 1-2 inches of rainfall, with high amounts approaching 3-4 inches. - More seasonable temperatures remain through the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 The long anticipated "cold" front is sagging into South Texas as we speak with the majority of showers and thunderstorms out ahead of the main front. A lot this morning's activity has been driven by the previous day's outflow boundary interactions and the plenty of CAPE/PWATs these storms have been able to tap into. As the forecasts before today have indicated, showers/thunderstorms have been able to efficiently wring out a quick 1-2 inches of rainfall. At the same time, some of the storms have been slow-moving which have allowed the higher end rainfall amounts to approach the 3-4 inches for totals. Given this, this event has mostly transitioned into a hydrological risk. That said, isolated wind gusts approaching 50 mph are still possible, but the 00Z HREF run showed most members keeping wind gusts severe (<20%). As we look ahead toward sunrise, this narrow line of storms extending from Galveston Island southwest toward Laredo, will continue to move south/southeast-ward. Latest HRRR guidance shows that after sunrise, the majority of the showers/storms will stay in the eastern-half of the CWA and moving offshore. This afternoon, more isolated rain chances return but won't amount to quite the show we had overnight. As we head into this weekend, our upper-level pattern changes to be more upper-level ridging giving us a stretch for most locations, with low chances of PoPs (20-30% chance) thanks to daytime heating and sea-breeze driven. Highs will reside in the 90s and lows in the 60s across most inland locations (with a smaller diurnal temperature range along the immediate coastline). Relatively drier air with this frontal passage will also keep our heat indices at bay and keep the HeatRisk at Minor (level 1 of 4). && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to make their way across South Texas through Thursday afternoon. MVFR to occasionally IFR conditions are possible in and around any thunderstorms with gusty and erratic winds. Have included TEMPO groups (and later, when chances are lower, PROB30 groups) at all terminals to account for this. Otherwise, VFR conditions with generally light winds are expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 Winds today switch from onshore to offshore as a frontal passage moves through the coastal waters throughout today. Winds will continue to be gentle to moderate (BF 3-4), with near 2 ft seas. This continues through Friday night when winds will switch to be more easterly with seas increasing to 2-3 ft from Sunday. Rain chances decrease throughout the day and will generally remain low (under 30% chance) through the forecast period each afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 88 72 90 70 / 70 10 0 0 Victoria 89 66 91 63 / 50 0 0 0 Laredo 91 72 94 72 / 70 10 10 0 Alice 90 69 93 66 / 70 10 10 0 Rockport 88 73 90 73 / 70 10 0 0 Cotulla 92 71 94 69 / 40 0 0 0 Kingsville 89 70 92 67 / 80 10 10 0 Navy Corpus 85 76 87 76 / 80 20 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AE/82 AVIATION...LS/77