912 FXUS62 KMLB 250520 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 120 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 244 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025 - A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues this afternoon with long period swells from distant Hurricane Gabrielle. - Scattered shower and lightning storm chances through Thursday, increasing in coverage late week. - Slightly above normal high temperatures for the interior through Friday reaching into the lower 90s each afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Current-Tonight... GOES-19 PWAT imagery shows a tight moisture gradient in place across central Florida with values of 1.6-1.7" near and north of I-4 increasing to 2.0" across Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. A scattered cumulus deck has developed with a well defined east coast sea breeze seen on visible satellite imagery. Isolated showers have developed along the Treasure Coast in vicinity the deepest moisture. Models further signal showers and storms initiating along a sea breeze collision late in the day. Therefore, have kept a 30-40% mention of showers and storms across the interior from Orlando southward late this afternoon and early this evening. An isolated strong storm will be capable of frequent lightning, wind gusts of 40-50 mph, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall. Dry conditions are forecast overnight with temperatures falling into the low to mid 70s. Thursday-Friday... A mid-level trough slides into the eastern U.S. with a closed low developing across the southeast U.S. by Friday. A weak surface ridge axis across central Florida retreats seaward into late week. In response, light and variable winds become offshore by Friday. Moisture trends on Thursday continue to decrease compared to what was forecast earlier this week. As a result, PoPs have trended closer to 30-50% across the forecast area. A modeled band of locally higher PWATs moves over central Florida Friday as a mid-level short wave progresses eastward overhead. As a result, rain chances increase to 50-60% Friday. Sounding analysis suggests a rather limited environment for well organized storm development. However, passing pulses and waves of vorticity aloft could enhance local parameters, and isolated stronger storms remain possible, particularly on Friday. Localized strong storms will be capable of frequent lighting strikes, gusty winds of 45-55 mph, small hail, and rainfall accumulations of 1-3". High temperatures range the upper 80s to near 90 along the coast with low 90s across the interior. Lower rain chances could even let areas west of I-4 touch the mid 90s on Thursday. Peak heat index values are forecast generally between 99-104 degrees, remaining hottest on Thursday. Low temperatures continue to hold steady in the low to mid 70s. Saturday-Wednesday (modified previous)...Getting interesting in the tropics as all eyes look toward a potential tropical wave approaching the southern Bahamas early on Saturday. While ensemble clusters have high spread, general trends suggest the feature could drift northeastward or parallel to the Florida coast (well offshore) by Monday. Further spread continues Tuesday and Wednesday with most ensemble suites favoring a northeast trend. While this is still several days out consistency with models and forecast confidence should improve as time draws near. At the very least, interests in ECFL should be concerned regarding marine/beach impacts. However, it remains a good reminder that we are in peak hurricane season and to have an emergency plan in place. Please continue to monitor the forecast for future updates. Otherwise, the aforementioned mid-level low and associated vorticity spins across the Southeast, Tennessee & Mississippi Valleys into early next week while on a gradual weakening trend. There remains a degree of uncertainty with both potential tropical development and mid-upper level features during this period. This will also play havoc with deep layer moisture. Best precip chances look to be Saturday (50-70%). Otherwise, will continue PoPs in the scattered category (30-50%) as a hedge. High temps generally in the U80s to L90s thru the period. Peak heat indices generally in the 90s to near 100F each day, a bit lower than recent days. Lows remain consistent and mild in the L-M70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 244 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Long period swells continue to promote hazardous conditions near inlets during out going tide. Otherwise, favorable boating conditions are forecast. A weak surface ridge axis over the local waters will keep light and variable winds Thursday before shifting onshore with the afternoon sea breeze. Light offshore winds then develop Friday as surface ridging shifts eastward. Seas of 3-4 ft late today diminish to become widely 2-3 ft Thursday, holding late into the weekend. At least scattered shower and storm chances are forecast each day, lingering into the overnight. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 120 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 VFR conditions are forecast to prevail overnight, though some short-range guidance is suggesting the potential for VIS and CIG reductions due to fog, especially near the Treasure Coast terminals. Too low confidence to include, but will continue to monitor and amend as needed. Light and variable winds overnight pick up out of the SW at the interior terminals and DAB, becoming easterly as the east coast sea breeze develops along the coast and moves inland. Increasing coverage of showers and storms forecast after 18Z along the coast and 20Z across the interior terminals. Confidence in timing too low to include TEMPOs, so excluded for now. Anticipate activity diminishing after 23Z along the coast and 02Z across the interior, with a return of light and variable winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 74 90 73 / 30 20 50 40 MCO 93 75 92 74 / 40 20 60 30 MLB 89 75 89 75 / 30 30 40 40 VRB 89 74 90 73 / 40 20 40 30 LEE 92 74 91 73 / 30 20 60 30 SFB 93 75 92 74 / 30 20 60 30 ORL 93 75 92 75 / 40 20 60 30 FPR 90 73 90 73 / 50 20 50 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Law AVIATION...Tollefsen