737 
FXUS63 KICT 250517
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1217 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms through early to mid 
  this evening.

- Extended period of dry weather with near to above average
  temperatures for at least the next 7-9 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

The slow-moving upper low responsible for the inclement weather the 
past few days continues to move slowly south across the region. 
Daytime heating amidst cooler air aloft and background synoptic 
forcing will support a smattering of hit-or-miss showers and perhaps 
a few thunderstorms areawide through early to mid this evening, but 
especially over portions of eastern and southeast Kansas. Limited 
instability and shear amidst poor lapse rates will likely preclude 
strong or severe storms, although above average precipitable waters 
will support brief heavy rainfall with the strongest activity.

Otherwise, deterministic and ensemble consensus supports a rather 
quiet/dry period of weather through at least the next 7-9 days, 
along with near to above average temperatures. The culprit will be 
increasing upper ridging, and associated increasing thickness and 
modest southerly flow. Forecast high temperatures look to range from 
the upper 70s through the mid 80s the next several days, with 
forecast low temperatures in the 50s and 60s. The GFS and ECMWF do 
progress an upper trough over Mid-America early next week, which may 
support low rain chances across the Kansas region, with the latest 
data supporting very light amounts at best.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for this TAF period with
light northerly/northwesterly winds. Areas of fog are possible
through Thursday morning mainly in southeast Kansas affecting 
CNU. Other sites may see fog, but confidence was not high enough
to include at this time.


&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...GC