621 
FXUS64 KAMA 250506
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1206 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

-Very low chance for patchy fog to form during the morning hours
 with best chances present across the Southwestern Panhandles. 

-Lows expected to quite cool tonight. Last time we observed what
 is in the forecast was early June. 

-Low chance (5-15%) of showers and storms Sunday and Monday. Track
 of the weather system will be critical to these chances
 increasing/decreasing. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Drier weather looks to be moving in for the Panhandles as model
agreement sees the upper-level ridge build behind the exiting
trough. This ridge and high pressure will look to settle over the
Panhandles during the overnight with expectation to stay over us
into the weekend. The only expectation to what should be
relatively quiet couple days of weather will be a low chance of
fog this morning. Presently there is still residual moisture
holding over the Panhandles, which will aid in keep dewpoint
depression values down. Combine these values with expected light
winds and overnight cooling and the potential is definitely there.
However, most CAMs do not expected any of this potential fog to
have much of an impact, with chances of getting below 5 miles in
visibility less than 15% this morning. Otherwise, look for the
expected drier weather to allow the Panhandles to warm today and
Friday with afternoon high temperatures returning to the 80s. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Drier weather does look to hold for most of Saturday, but model
agreement continues to trend for a new upper-level closed low try
to move into the Southern Great Plains later that night into
Sunday. At this time, there is still some disagreement on how much
of an impact this system will have on the Panhandle. Currently
there are a couple of recent runs of the GFS that have been
trending towards better chances at showers a good chuck of the
Panhandles, which the NBM has started to pick up on. However, the
recent runs of the NBM are still trending to keep these chances
present across the Western Panhandles only. From here model
agreement only gets worse as we head into the new week, with the
GFS wanting to force more activity across the Panhandles, while
the ECMWF wants us to stay dry. For now, the ensembles prefer the
drier outlooks, which will keep temperatures holding in the low to
mid 80s through the middle of next week. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Generally VFR conditions for the next 24 hours at all terminals.
However overnight and early morning on Thursday there is a very
low chance for fog. IF this manages to form it would be capable of
dropping conditions to IFR. KAMA and KDHT are the terminals that
would be at threat for this fog formation. Since the chances for
this occurring are so low it is not reflected within the current
TAFs. Otherwise light winds is expected at all terminals for the
next 24 hours. 

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...98