888 FXUS61 KRLX 250417 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1217 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Daily opportunities for showers and thunderstorms continues into the weekend as multiple disturbances affect the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 1050 PM Wednesday... The next wave of scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms is beginning to approach and move into the far western CWA as the surface low, currently near Paducah, KY, approaches from the southwest. This trend will continue overnight, with the axis of heaviest rain expected to be across NE KY, SE OH, and the northern lowlands, with 00Z guidance having trended slightly northwest with the aforementioned axis compared to earlier. Moderate to heavy rain at times is expected, leading to the continued potential for high water issues, primarily given any training of heavier showers or storms, especially across recently compromised soils. While considered, have opted against a Flood Watch given recent trends in guidance and uncertainty in placement of the heaviest axis of rainfall. Otherwise, lows across the CWA will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s, with some patchy fog possible given any brief breaks in cloud cover. The rest of the forecast remains on track. As of 600 PM Wednesday... Scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder continue across NE KY, SE OH, and the northern WV lowlands in the vicinity of an area of weak low-level convergence and modest instability that developed this afternoon given mostly cloudy skies, all amid broad scale southwesterly flow, funneling in ample moisture from well to the southwest. Given PWAT values of 1.6 to 1.8 and mean steering flow of ~15-20kts, locally heavy rain of up to 1-1.5"/hr has been falling in a few locations, leading to the potential for isolated high water issues in a few spots, primarily across the Huntington area thus far. Given further activity developing off to the southwest and mean upper level flow near parallel to the forcing axis, the potential for training of showers/storms exists overnight, leading to additional heavy rain and hydro concerns overnight into Thursday morning. Have updated PoPs into early tonight to correlate better with current radar trends, and have also added a heavy rain mention into the forecast through the overnight. The rest of the forecast remains on track. As of 1245 PM Wednesday... Gloomy weather prompted by surface low pressure and its attendant frontal boundary will prevail through the forecast period. The area will remain entrenched beneath overcast skies embedded with passing showers and the occasional rumble of thunder. At the time of writing, rain was streaming from southwest to northeast both along the Ohio River Valley and the spine of the Appalachians, with no indications of lightning. Deep southwesterly flow sponsored by this weather feature will continue to encourage periods of moderate to heavy rain overnight into Thursday. The surface front will be oriented through the heart of Ohio during much of the period, but will begin to drift eastward late Thursday evening and into the beginning of the short term forecast period. Mesoanalysis depicts some amounts of instability and shear are present over the area this afternoon, but not quite enough to muster much in the way of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. SPC has slashed any concern for severe with today's forecast, bringing us back down to a general thunderstorm risk for both today and Thursday. Attention will then be more upon hydro concerns as we progress through the near term period. Very dry antecedent soil conditions ahead of this event has helped to soak up this steady and beneficial rainfall so far today, with flash flood guidance not exceeded thus far. Continuous rounds of rain tonight into Thursday may foster some local ponding and trouble spots, but widespread flooding potential remains low in this event. This rainfall will hopefully slash away at the ongoing drought here in the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 1215 AM Thursday... Although a cold front will have already moved east of the area by Friday morning, an upper trough will push through the region. With some lingering moisture in the mountains and southern counties, these areas could see some showers. Models show that as the upper trough pulls away from the region, it leaves behind a cut off low over the southeast United States. This upper low will push some moisture back into the area, allowing for chances of showers and possible a few thunderstorms Friday night through the weekend. The best chances for this precipitation will be over the mountains and southern counties. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1215 AM Thursday... Models show the upper level low continuing to be near the area through Monday. This will allow for the chances of showers and possibly thunderstorms, with the best chances over the mountains and southern counties. The low finally shifts away from the region on Tuesday, although lingering moisture means that some showers can still not be ruled out. Models finally show high pressure building in for Wednesday, providing mostly dry weather. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 845 PM Wednesday... Mainly VFR conditions at present will gradually deteriorate overnight courtesy of lowering CIGs and scattered to numerous showers moving in from the west, with widespread MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGs by dawn, along with MVFR/IFR VSBY with mainly showers and perhaps spotty fog. A few isolated thunderstorms remain possible as well. This wave of rain will continue to shift northeast throughout Thursday morning into the early afternoon, with somewhat drier conditions thereafter, with ISO/SCT activity remaining possible in/near the mountains. Flight conditions will gradually improve to MVFR/VFR by late afternoon and early evening. Light southerly flow is expected tonight, with flow gradually veering to WNW by late in the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of rainfall and associated restrictions will likely vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 09/25/25 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H M M H L M HTS CONSISTENCY L M H H M M M H M M L M BKW CONSISTENCY M L H H M H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H M L L L L L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H M L L L L M M H M H AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR is possible at night with low stratus and/or fog through the weekend. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEK/RPY NEAR TERM...MEK/GW SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...GW