253 FXUS66 KPDT 250001 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 501 PM PDT Wed Sep 24 2025 .AVIATION...00Z TAFs...VFR conditions are forecast for all sites through the period; however, confidence in VSBYs at KYKM/KPSC is lower than average given the presence of active wildfires along the east slopes of the Washington Cascades. Sub-VFR VSBYs overnight and Thursday morning may occur, but confidence was too low (<30%) to include anything below 6SM HZ. A dry cold front will then sweep across the region from west to east Thursday, with increasingly strong westerly winds during the day. Winds of 10-20 kts with gusts of 20-30 kts are forecast, strongest at KDLS. Plunkett/86 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 PM PDT Wed Sep 24 2025/ DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday: Warm, dry conditions continue today with the high pressure system over the PacNW. For tomorrow, model guidance show a shortwave trough strengthening while approaching across our forecast area. This will give an extra push on the dry cold front, making the Columbia Basin and Cascade Gaps drier. This front will also enhance surface pressure gradients, bringing strong westerly sustained winds up to 20-25 mph with gusts at 30-35 mph across the aforementioned areas. HREF 00Z and 12Z showed a slight increase in the gusty west winds to account for the dry front. Daytime RHs remain in the teens and low 20s, though had to lower them into the low-mid teens for Columbia Basin and Cascade Gaps for tomorrow. The NBM even favored a 50-90% probability for overlapped high winds and low RHs. Given the weather pattern and these conditions potentially affecting nearby wildfires, this boosted our confidence level (60-90%) to upgrade our Fire Weather Watches for WAZ690 and ORZ691/703 into Red Flag Warnings with WAZ691/695 and ORZ701 included for tomorrow. These warnings will end tomorrow late evening as the front passes. The upper ridge arrive to the PacNW Friday before flattening Saturday. Both days will remain dry with relatively light diurnally-driven winds. Sunday through Tuesday: Another upper-level wave will arrive Sunday, bringing slight chances (<30%) of showers along the WA/OR Cascades before becoming widespread Monday onwards. Based on the raw ensembles, it seems like there is a 30-50% prob for mountain areas receiving up to 0.15" or more with lower elevations having below 0.10". Regardless on the slight timing differences from the models, they seem to look more aligned with this wetter pattern. Feaster/97 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 48 82 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 53 83 51 73 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 51 84 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 49 83 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 50 84 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 45 73 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 46 82 36 74 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 44 85 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 44 85 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 53 78 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 11 PM PDT Thursday for ORZ691-701- 703. WA...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 11 PM PDT Thursday for WAZ691. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Thursday for WAZ690-695. && $$ SHORT TERM...97 LONG TERM....97 AVIATION...86