755 FNUS75 KTWC 160316 FWSTWC Spot Forecast for SVRD piles Ramsey...USFS National Weather Service Tucson AZ 816 PM MST Mon Sep 15 2025 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 MST on September 16. .DISCUSSION...An uptick in storm activity is on tap for Tuesday and especially Wednesday, as additional moisture and instability from Tropical Storm Mario moves across the burn area. Light 20-ft winds will start from the southwest early morning and back to the east 4 to 8 mph by mid morning through early afternoon. Winds shift to the south late in the afternoon. Mind RH will be 30-35 percent with overnight recoveries around 95 percent. .TUESDAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the morning. Chance of pcpn......10 percent early in the morning, increasing to 40 percent by late morning, then to 50 percent late in the afternoon. Max temperature.....80-83 degrees. Min humidity........42-45 percent. 20-foot winds.......Southwest winds to 6 mph early in the morning, then shifting to the east 5 to 6 mph by mid morning and increasing 7-8 mph from the east by afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms beginning late in the morning. Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL early morning, increasing to 4400 ft AGL by late morning, then increasing to 5000 ft AGL early in the afternoon. Heights decreasing to 2700 ft AGL by late afternoon. Transport winds.....South 5 to 6 knots increasing and shifting to the southeast 6 to 7 knots in the late morning and afternoon. TIME (MST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky (%).........47 52 72 72 Weather cov..... CHANCE CHANCE Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ CHANCE CHANCE CWR.............0 10 40 50 Temp............62 78 81 80 RH..............75 52 46 44 20 FT wind......SW 2G6 E 3G7 E 4G8 S 4G8 Mix hgt (ft)....BLW100 1400 4400 4500 Transport wind..S 5 E 5 SE 7 SE 5 .TUESDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms early in the evening, then slight chance of showers overnight. Chance of pcpn......40 percent early, decreasing to 20 percent after midnight. Min temperature.....60-63 degrees. Max humidity........81-84 percent. 20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 6 mph early, shifting to the south in the late evening and overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms. Mixing height.......100 ft AGL. Transport winds.....North around 7 knots shifting to the south 4 to 7 knots. TIME (MST) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM Sky (%).........77 79 79 79 Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........CHANCE S CHC CWR.............40 40 20 20 Temp............70 66 66 63 RH..............69 74 72 79 20 FT wind......SW 3G8 S 4G10 S 4G8 SW 3G6 Mix hgt (ft)....400 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 Transport wind..N 7 S 6 SE 6 S 6 .WEDNESDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning late in the morning. Chance of pcpn......10 percent early morning, increasing to 50 percent by late morning, then decreasing to 30 percent late in the day. Max temperature.....78-81 degrees. Min humidity........47-50 percent. 20-foot winds.......Southeast winds up to 5 mph early, shifting to the northeast 5 to 6 mph by mid morning through early afternoon, then shifting northwest to 5 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms. Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL increasing to 4900 ft AGL in the late morning and early afternoon, then decreasing to 2900 ft AGL late in the afternoon. Transport winds.....Southeast around 4 knots early morning, shifting to the east around 5 knots late in the morning, then shifting to the west late in the afternoon. TIME (MST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky (%).........68 66 68 77 Weather cov..... CHANCE CHANCE Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ CHANCE CHANCE CWR.............10 10 50 50 Temp............63 71 79 77 RH..............82 67 50 50 20 FT wind......N 2G6 NE 3G6 NE 4G10 W 3G10 Mix hgt (ft)....200 1800 4600 3900 Transport wind..S 4 E 4 SE 5 SW 5 $$ Forecaster...TRIPOLI Requested by...Beau Cartwright Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2522004.0/TWC .DELDT 09/15/25 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL beau.cartwright@usda.gov Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson