344 FXUS61 KRLX 271613 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1213 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure brings brings dry and unseasonably cool conditions through the week. A weak, moisture-starved cold front will reinforce this cool airmass on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1126 AM Wednesday... High pressure brings another quiet and comfortable day areawide with a Fall-like feel to the air. Afternoon temperatures will reach the the upper 60s across the mountains to the middle 70s in the lowlands. Dew point temperatures this afternoon will drop to the upper 30s and lower 40s with afternoon minimum RHs in the upper 20s to lower 30s across the lowlands. The air will certainly be dry, but fire weather shouldn't be a huge concern at this time with the leaves still on the trees. Mostly clear skies overnight will allow overnight lows to reach the upper 40s to lower 50s areawide. A cold front will approach from the northwest Thursday, but it will be starved for moisture. The only chance of rain will be across northern West Virginia and southeast Ohio late Thursday into Thursday night with PoPs generally limited to 20 percent or less. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 1126 AM Wednesday... An upper-level area of low pressure will remain over northern New England Friday and Saturday with a surface high over the lower Great Lakes. Dry air over the middle Ohio Valley and central Appalachians will bring comfortable days and cool nights with a good deal of sunshine each afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1126 AM Tuesday... Models are not in agreement regarding the location and evolution of the aforementioned upper-level low in the long-term forecast period. Models show some brief ridging west of the upper-level low, which could signal the return of some warmer weather across the middle Ohio Valley for early next week. However, this could change as models come into better agreement. Models are also showing signs of an additional upper-level trough developing over the Eastern United States for the middle of next week, potentially signaling another cool down. At this time, rain chances look to be minimal through the middle of next week. Overall, our confidence in this long-term forecast is low due to model inconsistency, which is common this time of year when dealing with upper-level low pressure. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1212 PM Wednesday... VFR conditions will continue areawide today with northwesterly winds. Occasional gusts 15-20 kts will be possible this afternoon. Then, winds will turn calm again overnight. Clear skies will allow for some patchy fog to develop in the mountain river valleys, with some IFR fog expected again at KEKN between 06Z and 13Z Thursday. After 13Z, VFR conditions will resume areawide. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Patchy fog may briefly affect CKB, PKB, EKN and CRW overnight into early Thursday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR conditions possible in patchy river valley fog each morning into this weekend. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC NEAR TERM...JMC SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...JMC