591 FXUS63 KILX 240607 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 107 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and seasonably cool conditions are expected this week, with daily highs generally in the 70s and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. The probability of any weather impacts is low (less than 10%). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 106 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 At 1 am, mid level water vapor satellite showed the shortwave responsible for our isolated evening showers and storms edging into the Ohio Valley Region, with an unseasonably dry airmass over central IL in its wake; in fact, SPC mesoanalysis suggests PWATs have fallen to less than 0.7", or roughly our 10th percentile from sounding climatology. At the surface, temperatures are in the upper 50s to mid 60s, and still falling amidst clear skies and easing northwest winds. Expect temperatures to bottom out in the mid 50s by sunrise, rising only into the mid 70s this afternoon as cool advection restrengthens with the diurnal increase in northwest winds, which will gust around 20 mph at times. A few of the CAMs are depicting some light reflectivities across our north today and tomorrow, but we suspect the chance of anything reaching the surface is quite low (less than 10%) given the dry layer below any instability showing up on forecast soundings. If we do get reports of sprinkles out of more robust diurnal cu this afternoon then we'll likely need to add that into the forecast for both today and tomorrow, possibly Tuesday as well (with another shortwave arriving). The dry and seasonably cool airmass is slated to remain in place right through the end of the work week, when temperatures start to trend upward once again. Forecast highs, which are solidly in the 70s through Wednesday, climb to around 80 by Thursday and Friday. With surface high pressure in place through the week, light winds and few clouds should make for efficient nocturnal radiational cooling, especially Monday and Tuesday nights when NBM advertises 40- 50% chances for lows in the 40s. Bumgardner && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 VFR conditions will prevail with diurnal cumulus development beginning around 16Z, though any ceilings would likely be above 4000 feet and limited to areas near KPIA. Main aviation concern will be with northwest winds increasing mid to late morning, with gusts around 20 knots continuing through the afternoon. Winds will settle down after 00Z as sunset approaches. Geelhart && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$