206 FXUS62 KILM 142340 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 740 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather will continue through the end of the week as a few disturbances impact the area. Drier weather is then expected early next week as high pressure returns. Rain chances will increase into mid next week as moisture recovers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Higher than normal rain chances, mainly thru this eve *Low flash flood risk *Very low severe storm risk *Near to a bit above normal lows and near normal highs; max heat indices Fri could approach Heat Advisory levels (105 degrees) Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: A surface trough and weak area of low pressure, along with an upper disturbance and abundant tropical moisture, will keep it more unsettled than normal at least thru this eve. Locally heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, mainly north and east of roughly Myrtle Beach, Marion and Lumberton. An isolated strong to marginally severe storm is possible, mostly east of I-95. Low clouds and some fog are expected tonight as higher clouds diminish and subsidence increases behind the shortwave. Lows near to slightly above normal in the mid 70s most places. Rain coverage/amounts look less on Friday due to less forcing. Highs Friday should be near 90 with heat indices likely peaking in the lower to possibly mid 100s, although a Heat Advisory is not anticipated since they should stay mostly below 105 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Increasing depth of northerly winds should really start cutting down on precip chances Friday night. The boundary falls apart on Saturday and while we retain NE flow there is just a healthy enough shortwave due that rain chances to develop once again, highest along the coast. Behind this feature there will be another push of dry air and Saturday night will be rain-free and with more comfortable dewpoints. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sunday will be a nice late summer day with more sunshine than we've seen in a while and only a very small chance for a coastal shower. Precipitation likely also fails to make an appearance on Monday as we hold onto light NE winds. Flow starts turning back to southerly Monday night into Tuesday at which time dewpoints creep up and minor rain chances return. The late period forecast looks like typical August weather with a ridge building in from the west, seasonable temps, and mainly afternoon thunderstorms affecting roughly 30 percent of the area. Recurving Erin probably makes its closest approach at the end of the period, likely remaining comfortably well offshore. We still do expect a long period of dangerous rip currents possibly as early as Sunday but now more likely on Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The main area/line of convection is moving across the area and despite some back building should be offshore in the next couple of hours. This will lead to MVFR to IFR conditions in time favored mainly inland but possible along the coast as well. VFR conditions return Friday mid morning or so. Extended Outlook...Periodic flight restrictions are expected due to showers/storms, mainly each aftn/eve. Fog/low clouds could also cause brief restrictions each late night/morning. && .MARINE... Through Friday...A trough will remain over or near the waters with no significant winds/seas expected. Seas will stay 3 ft or less, a a combination of small wind waves and 8-9 sec ESE swell. Friday night through Tuesday... Rather unusual post-frontal northerly flow to start the period. There is still supposed to be a surge of NE wind and waves as this happens but it has become much more negligible in guidance. As the diminutive NE wind waves start to interact with Erin swells Monday there shouldn't be too many problems as they remain small. On Tuesday the swells grow and conditions will go downhill, not quite to advisory levels just yet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...RJB SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SHK MARINE...RJB/MBB