310 FXUS63 KLMK 142314 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 714 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Few isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening with frequent lightning, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds. * Hot and humid weather pattern starts tomorrow and continues through the weekend, into early next week, with highs into the mid 90s and heat index values around 100 degrees. * Monday and Tuesday could be approaching Heat Advisory criteria as heat index values both days are around 105 degrees with high temperatures in the mid/upper 90s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 327 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Weak sfc boundary continues to be draped across central KY this afternoon with weak sfc convergence to the south helping to initiate isolated showers and thunderstorms. While a rogue shower/storm is still possible along and north of the boundary, most of the activity will remain across the southern half of Kentucky. Heavy rainfall with PWAT values between 1.7 to 1.9, frequent lightning and gusty winds will be the main impacts from any storms we see this afternoon and early evening. Like the past couple of days, once we lose the daytime heating, most if not all of the activity will start to dissipate. Overnight, skies will range from partly cloudy to mostly clear, and with light winds, areas of patchy dense fog is once again a possibility, especially in valleys and other low lying areas. Overnight lights will range from the mid/upper 60s across the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland region to the low 70s further to the west. By tomorrow, the sfc boundary should be stalled to our south as strong upper-level ridging over the central Plains and Mississippi Valley begins to become more amplified and expanding into the Ohio Valley. The increase heights will start the beginning of a stretch of hot, above normal temperatures that goes into the weekend and early next week. Friday looks to be mainly dry, but can't completely rule out an isolated shower/storm but confidence is low. Most will see highs around 90 to even the low 90s during the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 327 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 The story for the weekend will be a return to hot summer temperatures with afternoon high temperatures climbing into the mid 90s with heat index values in the low triple digits due to dewpoints around 70. Strong, amplified ridging over central Plains into the Mississippi Valley will be the reason for the heat and that heat will continue into early next week. In fact, Monday and Tuesday could be hotter with highs in the mid 90s but with heat index values approaching Heat Advisory levels around 105 each day. The upper level ridge starts to shift back to the west by midweek as Erin starts to turn northward over the Atlantic towards Bermuda. This could be the wild card in the overall forecast but for now, as Erin makes the turn northward, a weak shortwave trough will work over the top of the ridge and through the Great Lakes Wednesday and Thursday. This will drop a cold front southward into the area bringing slightly cooler temperatures for the end of the week and a return of daily scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 714 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 A few scattered showers will continue across the region through sunset and dissipate. Skies overnight will become clear with light winds. Should be another night of patchy fog across the region. KBWG picked up a decent amount of rainfall this afternoon and could fog up pretty good overnight. For now will keep things down to about 2SM down there. Elsewhere, MVFR vsbys are expected overnight with KHNB likely dropping back down to 1/4SM between 15/08-15/12Z. The outlook for Friday calls for VFR conditions across the region with light winds. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BTN LONG TERM....BTN AVIATION.....MJ