187 FXUS61 KCAR 141813 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 213 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front exits to the south this evening, followed by high pressure building down from southeastern Canada through Friday, then sliding off to the southeast through Saturday. A cold front approaches from the northwest Saturday night, then crosses the area Sunday and Sunday evening. High pressure then builds in from south central Canada through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Deep layered northern stream ridging builds in tonight and Friday, then exits to the east Friday night. Other than some lingering isolated to scattered showers, along with possibly a rumble of thunder, over coastal Downeast Maine early this evening ahead of a cold front it should be dry. Cloud cover diminishes over the area this evening. There could be a reformation of some low clouds over coastal Downeast overnight depending on how quickly the low levels dry out. Friday and Friday night should have minimal cloud cover. There could be some patchy fog over the river valleys and possibly along the Downeast coast late Friday night as well. Lows tonight should be around 40 to around 60, this is around 5-10 degrees below normal across the North and near normal elsewhere. Friday should be noticeably less humid today with highs ranging from the middle 70s to around 80, except for around 70 near the immediate Atlantic coast. This is around normal. Lows Friday night should be around 5-10 degrees below normal, generally a few degrees cooler than tonight. With good radiational cooling conditions expected blended in the NBM 25th percentile with the NBM and then subtracted a degree in normally cooler locations for lows Friday night. With some mixing expected on Friday, did lower dewpoints, but mitigated a full mix-down from 850 mb by blending that with the NBM 25th and 75th percentile dewpoints to account for leaves on the trees. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Saturday: The high pressure will continue to exit out over the waters. Expect mostly sunny skies with a breezy SW wind. Temps should reach into the low 80s across the region. Saturday night: The cold front approaches from the west with increasing clouds throughout the night. Early cloud cover should keep temps in the upper 50s across the region. By the early morning hours of Sunday, the rain should progress down into the Central Highlands, though rain should be light as it fights with the dry air ahead of the front. Sunday: The cold front is expected to intensify and pick up speed. As the front progresses, the rain showers should move with the front. In addition, thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front. However, the instability is expected to be weak with low CAPE and weak lapse rates. Upper air model sounds do show a very moist column, which could lead to heavy downpours with any thunderstorms. The frontal boundary should move off the coast by the afternoon. Temps in the north should be in the 70s and the south in the low 80s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... After the cold front exits the area Sunday night, high pressure settles in for the beginning of the week. For Sunday night, clear skies and calm winds should create the perfect environment for radiational cooling. Temps could reach into the low 40s. By Monday and Tuesday, temps should returns to normal values to near below normal highs and lows. The GFS still wants to bring shortwave through the region on Wednesday, but there is no consistency between models to give confidence. Decided to leave the NBM slight chance in for this update. Otherwise, high pressure is expected to remain for the rest of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: High confidence in VFR at all terminals through at least 06z, and at northern terminals through the TAF period. At KBGR there is a very low chance for MVFR or lower ceilings to develop overnight, then high confidence in VFR after 13z. At KBHB there is moderate confidence in MVFR or lower ceilings developing overnight, with very low confidence in any MVFR or lower fog. Reflect the possible low ceilings with a TEMPO group at KBHB overnight. There then is a high confidence in VFR at KBHB after 14z. N-NW winds G15-20KT probable at northern terminals this afternoon. Winds become light and variable throughout at all terminals except KFVE this evening, where NW winds should fall under 10KT. Most terminals should see NW-N winds at under 10KT develop by mid Friday morning, except at KCAR where winds could stay light and variable. Friday afternoon...High confidence in VFR. SHORT TERM: Sat-Saturday night..Mainly VFR. S winds 5-15 kts. Sunday-Sunday night...Mainly VFR/MVFR. Brief IFR or lower possible PM with SHRA and isolated TSRA. S/SW winds 5-10 kts early, switching to NW from north to south during the day. Gusts 15-20 kt possible during the day and night. Monday...Mainly VFR. Winds from the N/NW at 5-10 kts, with gusts 15-20 kts possible early afternoon. Winds gradually relax by evening. Tue...VFR. Light and variable winds. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters tonight will limit sustained winds to 10kt or less. The gradient tightens somewhat Friday, with sustained winds up to 15kt probable on the coastal ocean waters. The pressure gradient relaxes again Friday night with winds 10 kt or less. Seas should be 2 ft or less through Friday night. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas should remain below SCA conditions Saturday through Saturday night. Winds could reach near SCA in the outer waters on Sunday, but then decrease Sunday night. Then below SCA for the rest of the period. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Beach Hazards Statement from Friday morning through Friday evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Maloit Short Term...LaFlash Long Term...LaFlash Aviation...Maloit/LaFlash Marine...Maloit/LaFlash