068 FXUS64 KCRP 141130 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 630 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 625 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 - Monitoring a disturbance that is now in the southwestern Gulf - Isolated showers/storms possible daily through next week, likely increase in coverage this weekend (Friday/Saturday) && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Showers and storms that were located to the north of the region have now ceased and conditions will be calm through the remainder of the night. In terms of the forecast, the pattern is continuing to remain pretty similar with the expected isolated diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze daily. Otherwise, continued hot temperatures with highs expected to be around 90 to 105 through next week. Heat indices will be around 110 leading to minor to major heat stress conditions through next week. In terms of tropics, a tropical wave is currently emerging over the southwestern Gulf though it is still pretty disorganized. Like previously mentioned, it still has a pretty low chance for development (back up to 20% at the time of writing this) though this doesn't mean that nothing could still form. Model guidance this evening has hinted at the low potentially closing off in the 00Z runs. Will have to continue monitoring the trends as this could slightly enhance the expected impacts to South Texas. The expected impacts will remain the same with locally heavy rainfall, increased rip currents, and increased swells which will likely lead to coastal flooding. We P-ETSS is forecasting seas to get around 1.7 ft MSL by Saturday and then reaching just above 2.0 ft MSL by Sunday morning. This setup in the past has led to increased wave-runup on the beaches, so it will be something to monitor. With us now embarking into peak hurricane season now, its best practice to make sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings should they be issued in advance and to remain prepared. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Besides very brief MVFR vsby potential over ALI/VCT the next couple of hours, VFR conditions will prevail across South Texas through the forecast. Breezy southeasterly winds this afternoon and early evening with sustained 15-20 knots and gusts around 25 knots. Although we only a very low (10-20%) chance of showers and storms along the seabreeze, rain chances will increase as we go beyond 12Z Friday due to the current tropical disturbance over the Bay of Campeche moving west-northwestward. && .MARINE... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Expect a moderate to gentle southeast breeze through the end of the week and into the weekend. Rain chances will increase this Friday and Saturday as a tropical wave moves through the Bay of Campeche toward the Texas coast. Chance for development of this wave are low (20%). && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 96 78 93 79 / 10 0 50 40 Victoria 97 77 94 76 / 20 0 50 40 Laredo 105 78 103 79 / 10 0 10 10 Alice 100 76 96 76 / 10 0 40 30 Rockport 93 81 92 80 / 10 10 50 50 Cotulla 104 78 101 78 / 10 10 10 10 Kingsville 97 76 93 78 / 10 0 50 40 Navy Corpus 92 83 91 82 / 10 10 50 50 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NP/92 AVIATION...EMF/94