032 FXUS66 KLOX 131809 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1109 AM PDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Updated Aviation Section .SYNOPSIS...13/908 AM. The cooling trend will continue through Saturday and by the weekend temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Night through morning low clouds and fog will continue for coast and coastal valleys through the period. A warming trend will kick off next Monday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...13/919 AM. ***UPDATE*** The marine layer depth has jumped to 2000 feet this morning across the LA Basin, sloping down to around 1300 feet along the Central Coast. The higher depth has improved visibilities at the coast and shifted the dense fog to the lower coastal slopes. Expecting at least a couple of degrees of cooling today and that trend continuing through about Saturday before leveling off. And similar marine layer coverage each morning, getting into most of the coastal valleys. Otherwise, a pretty quiet weather pattern to continue this very benign summer so far. ***From Previous Discussion*** The ridge will break down today and this will lead to a slight cooling trend across the interior. Just slight enough to keep conditions below heat advisory/warning thresholds. Above normal temperatures are still forecast for the lower mtn elevations and far interior, so people planning outdoor activities this afternoon should be mindful of the possibility of heat danger. A bigger cool down is on tap for the vlys as an eddy has lifted the marine layer to over 1200 ft and low clouds have overspread the San Gabriel and San Fernando Vly. The csts will not see much temperature change, since these areas have been under a steady marine influence. Max temps today in the vlys will mostly be in the 80s with some higher readings in the western San Fernando Vly. A north wind event will develop tonight as high pressure develops to the NW and N. The strongest winds will be across the western portion of the SBA south coast where gusts to 55 mph will occur. The I-5 corridor and western Antelope Vly will also see gusty winds to 40 mph which is just under advisory criteria. Troffing will replace the ridge on Thursday. The slight lift from the trof and continued onshore flow will bring low clouds to the coasts and some of the vlys. Max temps will continue to cool across the interior while the csts/vlys see little change. Another round of north winds will occur and advisory level gusts remain very likely for the western SBA county coast. Additionally the I-5 corridor will also likely see some advisory level gusts. The trof will remain over the state on Friday and hgts will fall to 586 dam. The marine layer cloudiness more representative of June than August will persist and some beaches may only see limited clearing. Another 2 to 4 degrees of cooling everywhere, save for the Central Coast which will warm 1 or 2 degrees, will bring coast temps down to the 70s and lower 80s with the vlys coming in with 80s and lower 90s. These max temps are mostly 3 to 6 degrees below normal. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...13/302 AM. The troffing pattern will continue over the weekend with both days being the coolest day of the next 7 as 586 dam hgts and up to a 9mb onshore push to the east in the afternoon. Look for 1 to 3 degrees of additional cooling Saturday and little change to those numbers Sunday. Max temps will end up in the 70s across the csts and only the 80s in the vlys. The Antelope Vly will only see mid 90s. Most max temps will be 3 to 6 degrees blo normal, but the LA/VTA vlys will be around 8 degrees under normal. The strong onshore push to the east will generate gusty afternoon winds across the some mtns and the western Antelope Vly. These winds will create locally elevated fire wx conditions. The strong upper high to the east will push westward starting Monday and continuing into Tuesday. The strong onshore push to the east will weaken and will only be moderate. The onshore flow to the north will also weaken and may reverse to slightly offshore in the mornings. Right now max temps are forecast to rise 2 to 3 degrees each day, but would not be surprised to see even greater warming esp next Tue. The night through morning low cloud pattern will continue all 4 days of the xtnd period. There will likely be more clouds in the vlys on Sat and Sun. The weakening onshore flow plus increasing hgts will likely keep the vlys cloud free on Mon and Tue with quicker clearing times for the csts. && .AVIATION...13/1808Z. At 1740Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2100 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 4200 ft with a temperature of 25 C. High confidence in VFR conditions for at least the next 24 hours at KPMD and KWJF with seasonally typical winds. Low confidence in TAF for KPRB. There is a 40% chance for SW winds between 220-250 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 20 kts between 22Z and 02Z. Arrival time may be off +/- 2 hours and minim cig heights may be off +/- 200 ft. Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. At sites south of Point Conception, conds may vary from SCT to BKN through the afternoon. For all sites with cigs fcst, arrival time may be off +/- 2 hours and minim cig heights may be off +/- 200 ft. For LA County sites, there is a 40% chance for brief IFR cigs overnight. There is a 30% chance for no cigs at KSBA tonight. Vis reduction due to FU from Gifford Fire is possible at times for KSBP, KSMX, KSBA, & KPRB. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. SCT to BKN conds between 012 and 020 may continue through the afternoon until cigs arrive for the night (+/- 2 hour arrival time). There is a 40% chance for cigs to drop to 008 sometime tonight. Southeast winds likely, but high confidence in winds staying under 8 knots. KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 40% chance for cigs to reach 007. Arrival time maybe be off +/- 2 hours. && .MARINE...13/204 AM. High confidence in seasonally gusty NW winds across the waters beyond 20 miles from shore between the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, with Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions common each day through at least this week. Cannot rule out brief and very localized gale force gusts to 35 knots from Point Conception to San Nicolas Island each evening. The nearshore Central Coast waters will flirt with SCA winds each afternoon and evening. The western Santa Barbara Channel will also see SCA conditions late each afternoon and evening, but unsure if it will be widespread enough to warrant an SCA for the entire zone. The winds tonight look strongest and most widespread, so will keep the SCA going. All areas will see choppy seas from these winds in the late afternoon through late night hours. In addition, night to morning dense fog may continue at times through Thursday mainly off the Central Coast. Moderate confidence in some improvement by Friday. A long period south swell will continue to bring hazardous waves nearshore and elevate currents near harbor entrances through at least this evening and possibly through Thursday evening. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 4 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Thursday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke AVIATION...Kittell MARINE...Kittell SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox