473 FXUS62 KMHX 091827 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 227 PM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather will persist across the region on Sunday into Monday as coastal trough lingers. More typical summertime weather regime returns from Tuesday onward. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 210 PM Sat...High pressure ridging remains centered over the NE and extends southwards into the Mid-Atlantic wedging itself into the Carolinas. At the same time stalled front remains well offshore and extends SW'wards towards the GA coast while a coastal trough has developed off the FL/GA coast today. This continues to promote a few showers and thunderstorms along the Gulf Stream and along the coast of SC and points south. Low stratus this morning has begun to lift this afternoon, but should continue to see partly to mostly cloudy skies across ENC into tonight before we gradually begin to clear out early this evening. Temps have gotten into the upper 70s to mid 80s today and should peak within the next hour or two across the region as NE flow continues to bring a cool marine airmass over ENC. Do expect some showers to potentially sneak up into our southern zones this afternoon through early tonight as the aforementioned coastal trough nears ENC and have kept the SChc to low end Chc PoP's in place across the area. While NE flow would likely preclude much of a thunder threat have kept SChc thunder in the forecast this afternoon. As we get into tonight, any leftover shower activity will likely dissipate and skies should briefly clear this evening with high pressure continuing to wedge itself into the Carolinas and points north. Continued steady NE'rly flow should become light and variable by late tonight as weak low developing along the stalled boundary to our south inches N'wards weakening the pressure gradient. This combined with forcing from the coastal trough to our south should result in some showers nearing ENC mainly south of Hwy 70 near daybreak. Low stratus and patchy fog will also be possible late tonight into early Sun morning with our northwestern zones having the highest chance to see patchy fog tonight as they will see the best environment for fog development. Below normal temps will continue, with lows falling into the upper 60s to low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... As of 210 PM Sat...Wedge of high pressure may finally begin to lift N'wards which will allow for low level moisture to finally increase and PWAT's to return to 2+ inches on Sunday. Coastal trough sneaks slightly N'wards and with low pressure off the coast making its closest point of approach to ENC tomorrow, expect increasing shower and thunderstorm chances especially south of Hwy 264 where likely to high end Chc PoP's persist. Where the offshore trough sits, and thus axis of strongest low-level convergence is, will be the difference maker with 24 hour rainfall totals on Sun. Current QPF spread is generally from about 0.5-1.5 inches over a 24 hour period. Given the lack of rain over the past few days don't expect flash flooding to be an issue but can't rule out an isolated threat if higher end amounts are reached on Sunday across the typically vulnerable urban areas. Temps once again get into the low to mid 80s on Sun as NE flow continues to bring a relatively cooler marine airmass over ENC. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 105 AM Sat... Key Messages - Slightly below average temperatures shift back to more climatological normals by mid-week. - Elevated chances of showers and a few thunderstorms continues into early next week. - Climatologically normal chances of precipitation return by mid- week. Medium range forecast for eastern NC looks to remain unsettled at least through Monday as ridge of high pressure holds strong but a small but potential mid-level low migrates along the southeastern coast through Monday. Offshore troughing will remain in place in tandem with sufficiently deep moisture (PWATs still hovering around 2"), so in theory the upper level support from the aforementioned low should enhance rainfall chances, mainly for areas south of Highway 264 and especially the Crystal Coast. Where the offshore trough sits, and thus axis of strongest low-level convergence, will be the difference maker - QPF spread sits at between a half inch to an inch. For now, will continue to carry chance PoPs for most of the region with likelies focused along the southern coast for Mon, especially in the afternoon and early evening. High pressure wedge does weaken some and will likely see more breaks of sun, but temps will still remain a few degrees below normal. High pressure will gradually break down and move offshore Monday through the rest of the week, and a more typical summer pattern will develop. More typical, limited coverage precip chances expected from here as ridging and subsidence strengthen. NBM tends to run a bit too hot with PoPs in this regime and adjusted them down slightly closer to climo. Temperatures return to around average, and combined with increasing humidity peak heat indices will approach 100-105 degrees. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Sunday morning/... As of 230 PM Sat...THe low stratus that had plagued ENC this morning has begun to lift this afternoon with just spotty areas of MVFR ceilings hanging around 2-3 kft ALONG THE obx AND OUR SW'rn zones with 3.5+ kft Cu field now noted across much of the inland areas. As a result all terminals but OAJ are VFR as of this update. Expect OAJ to eventually lift to VFR as well with VFR ceilings then expected across much of ENC this afternoon and evening as leftover low stratus lifts and eventually dissipates tonight. Kept all terminals precip free this afternoon as only isolated at best shower chances are expected and even if a shower does impact a terminal the impacts would be minimal at best. As we get into tonight a mix of low stratus and patchy fog begin to overspread ENC. Current guidance suggests ISO/PGV and areas surrounding them will have the best chance for some patchy fog tonight as they remain mo clear and winds remain light. For now kept them at MVFR vis mainly after 06Z to about daybreak. Further south and east have MVFR ceilings overspreading from south to north overnight into Sun morning (again after 06Z) Then keep a mix of MVFR ceilings and vis across ENC from 12Z to the end of the period. Did include a PROB30 group as well for OAJ/EWN for tomorrow morning as shower chances gradually increase from south to north as well. LONG TERM /Sunday afternoon through Thursday/... As of 105 AM Sat...More typical summertime aviation pattern in the long term with mainly VFR in the late morning through evening hours, punctuated by shower and thunderstorm chances in the afternoon. Greatest odds for precipitation are Sunday and Monday as weak upper low migrates along the southeastern coast, before returning to climatologically normal coverage from Tues onward. Threat of low stratus and some fog continues both Sun and Mon mornings. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Sunday/... As of 210 PM Sat...Latest obs across our waters show a steady NE wind at 15-20 kts with a few isolated 25 kt gusts noted mainly near our Gulf Stream waters. Seas are on the downtrend today across our coastal waters, with 3-5 ft seas noted outside of the central waters where 4-6 ft seas remain. As a result have ended the SCA's across all waters outside of these zones. High pressure will remain wedged to our north through the period though it should begin to weaken some on Sunday as a coastal trough and weak low pressure sneak up into the area allowing winds to weaken further tonight to about 10-15 kts with a few gusts up near 20 kts and seas lowering further to 3-5 ft across all waters thus ending SCA conditions. 5-10 kt NE'rly winds and 2-4 ft seas are then forecast on Sunday as pressure gradient relaxes with wedge of high pressure lifting north. However, as this occurs increasing shower and thunderstorm chances especially across our waters south of Hatteras will begin to overspread the area from south to north on Sunday bringing a chance a locally enhanced winds and seas within any thunderstorm that impacts our waters. LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/... As of 120 AM Sat...By Sunday winds will NE 10-15 kts with seas 3-5 ft. Winds become generally easterly Monday, and then SE Tuesday at around 5-10 kts. By Wednesday, we return to a more typical summertime pattern with south to southwesterly winds of around 10-15 kt. Seas steadily fall to 2-4 feet by Tuesday and change little through the rest of the long term period. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ152. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RCF SHORT TERM...RCF LONG TERM...MS AVIATION...MS/RCF MARINE...MS/RCF