048 FXUS64 KBMX 061119 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 619 AM CDT Wed Aug 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 104 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025 CAD wedge remain in place over the forecast area courtesy of a 1032 mb parent high over Quebec, with an associated low stratus deck. Will have to monitor areas on the edges of the stratus deck for fog development, with medium chances of visibilities dropping below one mile in our far southwest counties. Water vapor imagery indicates the upper trough axis and axis of tropical moisture pushing east of the area, with drier air filtering in aloft. There will be low chances for light showers/drizzle in the stratus deck this morning, followed by isolated to widely scattered showers/storms in the afternoon, highest chances in the southeast. This will be aided by lingering mid-level cyclonic flow and a weakness in the mid-level height fields, but overall expect activity to be fairly limited with PWATs dropping to around 1.5 inches. MLCAPE tops out only around 1200 J/kg, so any storms that develop should be relatively tame. Guidance is in good agreement in the low stratus deck mixing out/lifting in the afternoon, so temperatures will be back in the 80s, but there will still be considerable cloudiness. Flow aloft will become northerly on Thursday between a strong mid-level anticyclone centered over New Mexico and persistent troughing over eastern portions of the Southeast. No signs of any MCS activity, however, given the lack of deep layer moisture. Diurnal convection should remain isolated to widely scattered. Temperatures will continue to trend upward, but still remain a couple degrees below average in most spots given continued easterly winds associated with weak wedging persisting along the East Coast. 32/JDavis && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 104 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025 A mid-level weakness in the ridge and weak wedging will remain in place through at least Saturday. This will continue to keep the heat in check. Rain chances will eventually trend upward by Sunday as tropical moisture returns to the area from the southeast, but this has trended slower in recent runs. Subtropical ridging will strengthen north of the Bahamas by early next week, with heat indices climbing back to around or slightly above 100. PWATs will be around 2-2.2 inches, resulting in above average rain chances. Any storms during this period will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. 32/JDavis && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025 Low CIGS will remain across the region until roughly 06/18z, before mixing out to low-end VFR category. This is where conditions are expected to remain for the rest of the TAF period. /44/ && .FIRE WEATHER... No issues from fire weather elements are expected over the coming days. Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected, most focused on the afternoon to evening time frame, though these will be more isolated the next couple of days. 20-foot winds will be light, except variable and gusty in and near showers and thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 87 68 88 67 / 20 0 20 0 Anniston 85 68 87 67 / 20 10 20 0 Birmingham 86 70 88 69 / 20 0 20 0 Tuscaloosa 89 71 90 71 / 20 10 20 0 Calera 86 70 88 69 / 20 10 20 0 Auburn 84 69 85 69 / 20 10 30 10 Montgomery 88 72 88 70 / 20 10 30 10 Troy 86 69 86 69 / 40 10 30 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...32 LONG TERM....32 AVIATION.../44/