557 FXUS64 KLIX 050506 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1206 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 Upper trough continues across the middle and lower Mississippi River Valley, with upper ridging over New Mexico. At the surface, weak low pressure was noted over Georgia with a stationary boundary just south of Interstate 10. East of the trough axis, the airmass remains rather moist, with precipitable water value of 2.2 on the 00z LIX sounding. To the west, the soundings at JAN, SHV and LCH all had precipitable water values around 1.5 inches. Pretty much the dividing line between scattered showers and thunderstorms...and no precipitation at all. Evening temperatures ranged from the upper 70s to mid 80s, with dew points in the 70s. Satellite indicates there is easterly flow at low levels producing an area of convergence ahead of the trough axis. That has been producing scattered thunderstorms over the coastal waters during the evening hours, and is likely to continue overnight. The question is how much of the land area will be impacted by this scenario during the day, or whether most convection remains offshore. Current expectation is that the areal coverage will likely remain on the scattered side, with the exception of near the coast where sea breeze boundaries will provide an additional focus. Most storms should just after sunset. By Wednesday, precipitable water values will be more uniformly in the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range, with afternoon convective development being isolated to scattered, with once again, the possible exception of right along the coast.. Afternoon high temperatures will likely be in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most areas, although if the Baton Rouge area remains dry, they could reach mid 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 The ridge centered over New Mexico isn't going anywhere any time soon, and neither is the one centered near Bermuda. That keeps the local area stuck in the weakness between the two, with occasional weak shortwaves dropping southward to the east of the New Mexico ridge. That's likely to allow scattered convection on Thursday, but forecast precipitable water values are likely to be in the 1.6 to 1.8 range or lower. That is actually a bit below climatology for early August. The NBM PoPs do look a bit on the high side for the weekend afternoons, as they are higher than the medium range operational guidance and would be above the 90th percentile of the ECMWF ensemble members from the 12z run. High temperatures are likely to be in the lower 90s for the weekend, with a few spots peaking around 95. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 Most TSRA should remain offshore overnight, but could impact terminals near the coast (KGPT, KASD and perhaps KMSY and KNEW) prior to sunrise. With trough in the area and low level southeast flow advecting moisture toward the trough, may be greater areal coverage than anticipated earlier, but primarily during the afternoon hours. As has been the case the last several evenings, dissipation of TSRA is expected to be close to 00z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 Areal coverage of thunderstorms has been somewhat greater than expected during the evening hours. This may mean an additional increase during the early morning hours this morning. Drier air should trend activity downward somewhat, at least over the lakes and sounds for Wednesday toward the weekend. Outside of convective impacts, conditions will remain benign across the coastal waters. A few strong storms will be possible each day/night, and could result in gusty winds, waterspouts, and locally higher waves/seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 90 71 91 71 / 40 20 50 20 BTR 92 73 93 73 / 50 20 60 10 ASD 89 72 91 72 / 70 30 70 30 MSY 91 77 92 78 / 70 30 70 20 GPT 89 74 90 74 / 80 40 60 30 PQL 89 72 90 72 / 80 40 60 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW