456 FXUS64 KBMX 041838 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 138 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 134 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2025 - A Flood Watch remains in effect across east Alabama through Tuesday evening. Periods of heavy, slow-moving showers and thunderstorms could cause flash flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 134 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2025 The cold air damming "wedge" is in full effect across Central Alabama today, with a surface ridge still in place across the Smoky Mountains. Strong easterly flow at the surface continues across Georgia, across all of Alabama, and as far as eastern Mississippi. Aloft, flow becomes southwesterly around 750mb as measured by the 12z KBMX sounding and remains southwesterly through the rest of the atmospheric profile. Continued isentropic lift up and over the surface wedge is producing widespread low stratus clouds over the entire forecast area which is expected to continue through the rest of the day. As a result, record low maximum temperatures will be in jeopardy this afternoon. Needless to say, it's not very often that we have highs in the low to mid 70s on August 4th in the Deep South! Rain showers continue to develop across much of Georgia stretching southwestward into the I-85 corridor early this afternoon. The good news in terms of flood potential is that current development is stratiform in nature due to the stable, cooler air working in via the wedge. The closest convective activity is along the immediate Gulf Coast where a stationary boundary remains draped from west to east. We will evaluate the need for some of our counties to remain in the current Flood Watch over the next hour or so, especially across our far northeast, along the I-59 corridor. In terms of today's forecast, highs were adjusted downward areawide, and may require adjusting once again across the west where overcast conditions are showing no signs of mixing out. PoPs remain highest across eastern and southeastern counties, but have significantly reduced chances for thunder in those locations due to the stable nature of the current air mass. A better chance of a few storms comes back into play during the evening hours, but the good news is that the chance for heavy rainfall that could cause flash flooding through the day today is quite low. As we go through the night tonight and into the day on Tuesday, we'll remain stuck in the same pattern both at the surface and aloft. Continued isentropic lift along with 500mb shortwave activity will continue to develop showers and storms across our eastern and southeastern counties, and a localized flood threat still exists. Temperatures will remain on the cool side with plenty of cloud cover, mostly in the 70s and lower 80s. 56/GDG && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 142 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2025 There is not a lot of change in the overall mid-level weather pattern across the region over the next several days, featuring a trough in our vicinity, between high pressure systems to the west and east. Areas of surface low pressure will exist just off the Southeast U.S. where the bulk of precipitation will occur, with isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms for central Alabama. High temperatures will average in the 80s across the area. 89^GSatterwhite && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 134 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2025 IFR to MVFR ceilings are the primary aviation impact through the forecast period, with most SHRA and reduced vis confined to AUO at the current time. Lower ceilings will prevail through the overnight, becoming IFR for all terminals between 09z and 13z Tuesday morning. Chances for SHRA at times also remain in the forecast. Easterly surface winds will continue between 5 and 10 knots becoming light overnight tonight. 56/GDG && .FIRE WEATHER... No issues from fire weather elements are expected over the coming days. Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected, most focused on the afternoon to evening time frame. 20-foot winds will be light, except variable and gusty in and near showers and thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 65 81 66 84 / 30 40 30 40 Anniston 66 79 68 84 / 40 60 40 40 Birmingham 66 82 68 85 / 20 40 20 40 Tuscaloosa 68 86 70 88 / 20 30 10 30 Calera 67 82 68 85 / 30 50 20 40 Auburn 67 79 69 82 / 60 70 50 50 Montgomery 69 83 70 85 / 40 70 30 40 Troy 70 82 69 85 / 50 70 30 50 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for the following counties: Barbour-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa- Elmore-Lee-Macon-Montgomery-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Talladega- Tallapoosa. && $$ SHORT TERM...56/GDG LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite AVIATION...56/GDG