903 FXUS63 KLBF 040527 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1227 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected across mainly the Sandhills though early this evening. - Monitoring the severe potential later Monday afternoon and Monday night. Confidence is low if storms will initiate, but would likely be severe if they do. - Heat builds in mid to late week. Hot temperatures combined with humidity could push some areas into heat advisory criteria Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 226 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon lasting into the evening hours before ending. A weak surface trough will be anchored from near Ainsworth to Ogallala by late this afternoon. Overall shear is weak with no real defined wave to enhance lift for storm development. There is around 2000 J/KG of surface based CAPE available along the boundary, so the atmosphere is somewhat buoyant. Low-level convergence along the boundary will have to serve as the main focus for widely scattered storm development. As storms attempt to move east-southeastward off the boundary, they appear they will struggle to survive as the outflow races out well ahead the main cores. In the early stages of development, a few instances of hail will be possible in the strongest cores. Then wind would be a concern as outflow pushes quickly outward. Monday could end up being a bit more interesting. However, heights will be rising as upper level high pressure begins to build northward through the Rockies. This could cap the atmosphere and prevent convective development all together. Still, a few of the CAM members insist that isolated supercell development will occur across portions of northwest Nebraska in a moist, upslope environment. If a storm materializes, it would likely be severe, and a right-turning supercell. The environment would support all severe hazards if a storm manages to develop. The NAM model brings an all out MCS southeast through the area Monday night. With such strong shear and strong southerly low-level jet, wouldn't be surprised. It actually been advertising this for several runs and have expanded some low pops through Monday night to account for this possibility. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 226 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Attention turns to the heat and less of a storm threat as we head into the Tuesday through Friday timeframe. Ridging aloft will continue to expand north and eastward across the central plains. Stronger winds aloft and any embedded disturbances look to shift more into the northern plains. This shifts the better focus for thunderstorm activity northward. Cannot rule out a stray storm or two with the expected heat and humidity, but chances don't look favorable due to rising heights and warming temperatures aloft. The bigger story will be the heat gradually building eastward across the area through the week. In fact, conditions look to be near heat advisory criteria Thursday into Friday as the heat combines with humidity. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 VFR conditions will continue to prevail across western and north central Nebraska for the next few hours. Prior to sunrise, stratus redevelops over southwest and south central Nebraska, which may introduce IFR ceilings across portions of the region. Will continue to include KLBF in the IFR ceilings. This will be closely watched over the next several hours, and amendments may be needed if timing and extent change. By mid morning, a quick return to VFR conditions is expected, remaining VFR throughout the day. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected in the late afternoon to early evening. For now, think that impacts to the terminals will be later in the evening, however timing will continue to be refined over the next forecast cycles. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Taylor LONG TERM...Taylor AVIATION...Richie