765 FXUS61 KRLX 011002 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 602 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front has moved through the area, ushering in a cooler and drier airmass for the end of the week and the upcoming weekend. A gradual return to more seasonable temperatures and humidity is expected early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 600 AM Friday... Increased shower coverage to numerous across portions of the southern coalfields this morning to better reflect current radar trends. As of 140 AM Friday... A post-frontal environment is in place across the forecast area early this morning with drier air progressively working into the region. For several ASOS sites, today will be the first day in over 2 weeks with dew points observed under 70 degrees. Lingering low-level moisture trapped beneath a developing inversion, coupled with light northerly winds will continue to support the formation of low stratus and pockets of fog where low clouds intersect the higher terrain. These conditions will be slow to improve this morning, with the stratus deck breaking up and lifting from west to east through the late morning and early afternoon. The persistent low clouds may inhibit some diurnal heating, keeping afternoon high temperatures in the upper 70s for many lowland locations, with cooler readings in the higher terrain. Mostly dry weather is anticipated today as a subsidence inversion effectively caps near surface based parcels, though continued isolated to scattered showers cannot be ruled out across our far southeastern counties where a modicum of instability will remain. Parcel equilibrium levels are expected to be around the -20C isotherm so could still hear a few rumbles of thunder this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 140 AM Friday... Surface high pressure will become centered over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic through the weekend, promoting dry and stable conditions. A cooler and less humid airmass will be in place, with below-normal temperatures expected. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lows Saturday morning dropping into the upper 50s in valleys. Ample sunshine and light winds will prevail, although suspended smoke from distant Canadian wildfires may present a milky appearance to the sky at times - little to no impact to surface visibility is expected from smoke. The combination of a dry airmass and mostly clear skies will allow for efficient radiational cooling each night, leading to potential for patchy valley fog, likely maximized Sunday night as the surface high center edges a little closer. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 140 AM Friday... The long term period begins with continued dry weather on Monday as the surface high pressure system shifts eastward off the Atlantic coast. This will initiate a southerly return flow, gradually advecting more moisture into the region from the Gulf. By Tuesday, this increased low-level moisture, combined with ascent associated with broad troughing approaching from the west will reintroduce a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation chances will increase further for Wednesday as the system crosses the area, before tapering off on Thursday. Temperatures will trend back towards seasonal averages through the period, with highs reaching the lower to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 600 AM Friday... A cold front has cleared the region, but abundant low-level moisture remains. Widespread MVFR with some pockets of IFR ceilings are in place across the terminals this morning with pockets of LIFR where low clouds intersect the higher terrain. Conditions will gradually start to improve after 13Z, with a return to VFR expected by mid-afternoon for most terminals. Light north to northeasterly winds around 5 to 10 kts are expected. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improvement to VFR from low stratus may vary this morning/afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M L H H M H H H H H M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M H M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... Some patchy valley fog will be possible Sunday morning, with better chances for Monday morning as the center of surface high pressure edges closer. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP NEAR TERM...JP SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...JP