804 FXUS66 KMTR 311202 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 502 AM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025 ...New AVIATION, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 254 AM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - Dynamic tidal conditions still exist near the shore in the wake of the tsunami. These conditions are subsiding. However, continue to use caution near harbors and inlets. - Seasonably mild weather persists into the weekend. Otherwise typical summertime weather. - Potential for gusty onshore winds Sunday and Monday along the coast and near gaps and passes. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 254 AM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025 (Today and tonight) Marine layer deepening to about 2,000 feet per the Fort Ord profiler this morning, leading to patchy drizzle along coastal areas. Really not much to elaborate on in the short term as weak upper level troughing persists and keeps this quiet, mild pattern going. Refer to the BEACHES section below for information about ongoing near-shore threats as minor tidal oscillations continue after Wednesday morning's tsunami. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 254 AM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025 (Friday through Wednesday) Mild and quiet weather continues through the first half of the weekend. By Sunday, a more potent trough out of the Gulf of Alaska is progged to move through the northern half of the state resulting in increased moisture and gusty onshore winds. A few discussions ago I had mentioned the potential for offshore winds by the middle of next week. Updated guidance has advertised a more favorable track for the upper low which has shifted the focus to gusty ONshore winds earlier in the period (Sunday and Monday). Most favored areas will be coastal and high elevation areas, as well as NW/SE oriented gaps and passes. There still does exist a low chance of breezy northerly winds across the North Bay as the low translates inland early Tuesday. However, this appears to be a fairly short period as winds revert back to a more onshore component by Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 458 AM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Currently a mixed bag of IFR-MVFR at the terminals with a marine layer of about 2,200 feet. With the exception of HAF, moderate to high confidence on widespread VFR being achieved by this afternoon. Heights will ever so slightly rise towards the end of the TAF period which will assist in the compression of the marine layer. Thus, IFR ceilings are expected tonight, but for less terminals as the marine layer will not be deep enough to penetrate as far inland. Vicinity of SFO...Currently MVFR with southwesterly flow. High confidence (85%) that the terminal will improve to VFR by this afternoon. Westerly winds will prevail through the TAF period. High confidence in a sub-VFR ceiling returning to the terminal tonight, likely similar to what is underway right now on the cusp of IFR/MVFR. SFO Bridge Approach...Low probability (20%) that low stratus clouds will linger between OAK and SFO through the afternoon and evening. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently IFR with southwesterly flow at MRY and MVFR with westerly flow at SNS. Moderate confidence on the terminals (higher confidence in SNS than MRY) achieving VFR this afternoon with low stratus sticking close to the coast. Westerly winds will prevail through the TAF period. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 254 AM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes will prevail with gale force gusts developing in the coastal jet regions of Point Reyes and Point Sur by Sunday afternoon. Moderate to rough seas will prevail through Monday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 458 AM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025 The Beach Hazards Statement has been allowed to expire due to water level fluctuations of less than 1 foot for several hours now. As always, please continue to exercise caution on, in, or near the ocean today as water levels continue to fluctuate. Sarment && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 AM PDT early this morning for CAZ006-505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Behringer LONG TERM....Behringer AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea