954 FXUS66 KMTR 311027 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 327 AM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 254 AM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - Dynamic tidal conditions still exist near the shore in the wake of the tsunami. These conditions are subsiding. However, continue to use caution near harbors and inlets. - Seasonably mild weather persists into the weekend. Otherwise typical summertime weather. - Potential for gusty onshore winds Sunday and Monday along the coast and near gaps and passes. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 254 AM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025 (Today and tonight) Marine layer deepening to about 2,000 feet per the Fort Ord profiler this morning, leading to patchy drizzle along coastal areas. Really not much to elaborate on in the short term as weak upper level troughing persists and keeps this quiet, mild pattern going. Refer to the BEACHES section below for information about ongoing near-shore threats as minor tidal oscillations continue after Wednesday morning's tsunami. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 254 AM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025 (Friday through Wednesday) Mild and quiet weather continues through the first half of the weekend. By Sunday, a more potent trough out of the Gulf of Alaska is progged to move through the northern half of the state resulting in increased moisture and gusty onshore winds. A few discussions ago I had mentioned the potential for offshore winds by the middle of next week. Updated guidance has advertised a more favorable track for the upper low which has shifted the focus to gusty ONshore winds earlier in the period (Sunday and Monday). Most favored areas will be coastal and high elevation areas, as well as NW/SE oriented gaps and passes. There still does exist a low chance of breezy northerly winds across the North Bay as the low translates inland early Tuesday. However, this appears to be a fairly short period as winds revert back to a more onshore component by Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 524 PM PDT Wed Jul 30 2025 MVFR and IFR CIGs are building along the coast and in the Bays. Winds look to reduce across the district into the early night, becoming light to moderate through the night and much of Thursday morning. CIGS look continue to push inland overnight and become widespread into the morning, but could be inconsistent for SJC. Mist and pockets of fog look to affect the Monterey Bay terminals, STS and HALF. Sites begin to clear in the late morning with most TAF sites going VFR in the afternoon. The exception will be HAF and MRY, which will go to MVFR CIGs, but will not clear through the TAF period. Expect modest wind increases into Thursday afternoon with most areas peaking around 15 kt winds. Winds reduce again that evening with CIGs quickly returning into the bays and becoming widespread again late that night. Vicinity of SFO...MVFR CIGS are building across the SF Bay. Winds reduce into the night and gust cut off as CIGs fall to IFR levels. Cloud cover rises into the mid morning but doesn't scatter until the late morning. Moderate west winds return into Thursday afternoon but reduce in the late evening as MVFR CIGs return. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR CIGS are affecting the terminals. Expect these CIGs to fall to IFR levels int the mid evening to early night as winds reduce. Moments of reduced visibility and LIFR CIGs affect the area into the early morning. CIGs erode into the afternoon for SNS but MRY fails to clear, but CIGs do look to rise back to MVFR levels. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 254 AM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes will prevail with gale force gusts developing in the coastal jet regions of Point Reyes and Point Sur by Sunday afternoon. Moderate to rough seas will prevail through Monday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 237 PM PDT Wed Jul 30 2025 A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect until 5 AM PDT Thursday for coastal portions of the Bay Area and Central Coast. Ocean levels continue to fluctuate with dangerous ocean currents continuing offshore. This will result in hazardous swimming conditions and small crafts (canoes, kayaks, paddle boards) may be vulnerable to dangerous ocean currents. Beachgoers should use elevated caution while at the beach as active ocean currents may transport debris in from the ocean onto the beach. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 AM PDT early this morning for CAZ006-505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Behringer LONG TERM....Behringer AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea