879 FXUS62 KMHX 290700 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 300 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions continue through mid week, with isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening storms. A cold front brings more widespread precipitation late this week, with cooler and more pleasant conditions for the weekend, although continuing unsettled. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 3 AM Tue... Key Messages: - Oppressively hot and humid today, with heat index values peaking at 100-108 deg. Heat Advisories in effect generally south of Hwy 70. Upper ridging continues over the Carolinas along with sfc high pressure. Main concern will again be the heat, with highs climbing into the low/mid 90s with dewpoints in the 70s. Have trimmed back heat adv slightly from the north and east, as slightly drier airmass working it's way into ENC. Criteria should be met generally along and south of Hwy 70 where overlap of highest TD's and warmest T's occur. Regarding convection, activity should generally be relegated south of Hwy 264 as leftover boundary that has worked its way in from the north continues to spark some showers/storms. Pops in the 20-30% range for the srn and wrn zones. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Tue...Afternoon and early evening convection will wane with loss of heating this evening, with activity coming to an end from e to w as sea breeze works inland. Risk of late night fog development once again esp for areas that received rain. Will start with patchy fog mention for interior zones where overnight lows will be 'coolest'. Muggy lows range from the mid 70s inland to upper 70s, near 80 beaches. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1:30 AM Tuesday... Key Messages: - Cold front will bring heavy rain and relief from the heat late week into the weekend - Heavy rain Thursday & Friday may pose a flooding risk Wednesday: The strong upper ridge will remain in place over the southeastern US through mid-week, which will continue the oppressive heat and humidity. Highs across the coastal plain will range from the mid- to upper-90s with the beaches in the upper-80s to low-90s. These temps, paired with dewpoints in the mid- to upper-70s, will result in daily heat indices around 100-105. This will likely be the driest day of the period with only isolated showers and storms along the seabreeze. Thursday: This will be the transition point in the forecast. A 500 mb low will traverse northern Quebec and drag an embedded shortwave trough across the eastern US. This will support the development of surface troughing across the area and start the southeastward movement of a cold front across the Appalachians. PoPs will increase ahead of the front, but with it not expected to cross into the FA until late Thursday/early Friday, temps will still be able to reach the low-90s, resulting in heat indices in the 100-105 range again. Thursday night-Sunday: The front will slowly move southeast across the FA on Friday, dumping heavy rain along the way. High PWATs (2.25- 2.5") combined with long skinny CAPE profiles and slow storm motions will raise concern for flooding across ENC. WPC has highlighted ENC in their EROs for both Thursday and Friday with the entire area in either a marginal risk (level 1/4) or slight risk (level 2/4) for flash flooding. The front won't clear the area until Saturday morning but its proximity to the coast will sustain shower and thunderstorm chances through the weekend. Northeast flow behind the front will usher in cooler temps and lower dewpoints. Highs will drop to the mid- to upper-80s on Friday and low- to mid-80s Saturday and Sunday. Compared to this past weekend, some places across the coastal plain will see a nearly 20 degree high temperature difference. Monday: Temps will gradually rebound at the start of next week as upper ridging becomes slightly more amplified. Lingering coastal troughing and the seabreeze will support slight chance to chance showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 2 AM Tue...Patchy fog and low stratus are expected to develop esp north of a weakening boundary. Further south, sct showers and an iso storm through the rest of the overnight into Tue morning limit fog threat. Diurnal showers and iso storms again on Tue, with best chances at KOAJ where highest moisture will reside. However, any location could see a shower or renegade storm, but chances too slim to include in the fcst attm. Could see fog/low stratus Tue night as winds become light and skies skc. Best chances for where rain occurs today. LONG TERM /Wed through Saturday/... As of 2 AM Tuesday...There will be several chances for sub-VFR CIGs and VIS through the long term, especially Thursday through the weekend when a cold front will bring heavy rainfall to the area. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/... As of 3 AM Tue...Scattered storms are possible yet again today, esp for the sounds and inland rivers. Winds will be very light and vrb this morning, becoming onshore up to 10 kts this afternoon, then becoming light and vrb overnight tonight. Seas will remain in the 1-2 ft range. LONG TERM /Wed through Saturday/... As of 2:10 AM Tuesday...Variable 5-15 kt winds will become predominantly southerly by late Wednesday. Late Thursday and into Friday, a cold front will move south across the area, veering winds to the north and increasing to 15-20 kt. A northeasterly surge late Friday and into Saturday will increase winds to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30+ kt. The coastal waters north of Cape Hatteras, the northern Pamlico Sound, and the northern rivers and sounds have potential to reach gales Saturday afternoon. 1-3 ft seas at the start of the period will build to 2-4 ft by late Thursday. Prolonged northeasterly fetch will build seas from north to south Friday night into Saturday. Highest waves on Saturday will be 6-7 ft north of Ocracoke Inlet and 3-6 ft to the south. Highest PoPs will be from Friday afternoon-Saturday with heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning possible. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ090>092-094-193>195-198-199. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...TL SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...OJC AVIATION...TL/OJC MARINE...TL/OJC