875 FXUS62 KTAE 281012 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 612 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Deep layer high pressure, featuring a 1022 mb high and a 598 dm mid level high to start the morning, moving over the ArkLaMiss heading west. A dry northerly flow will remain in place today though surface winds over the Gulf waters will back westerly later today. As the stacked highs continue to move west, subsidence aloft will slowly loosen its hold. Looking at the column, a slight uptight in low level moisture in the 850-700mb may provide slightly less dry air mixing down to the surface and based on some of the latest HREF and CONS guidance, ticked dewpoints up a degree here and there for the afternoon. As highs will soar to around 100 degrees or the low 100s, heat indices will increase to the 107-112F range. Heat advisory for today looks on track with no changes planned; just a slight uptick in the indices for the public forecast. Pwats will slowly increase today from around 1.7-1.8 inches up to 2 inches later this afternoon. There are some indications of showers and thunderstorms developing in north central Georgia which will move south on northerly flow. A few of these may reach our northern CWA counties as well as a few storms along the seabreeze which should mainly remain south of I10 with northerly steering flow. Do have slight chance pops along the seabreeze and the northern tier counties late afternoon through mid evening. Lows Monday night will only fall to around 80 degrees. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Tuesday night) Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Dangerous heat continues on Tuesday the extent to which will depend on the evolution of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. A southward moving shortwave along the right flank of the mid-level ridge and the seabreeze will provide sources of lift while airmass is characterized by PWAT with a 70% chance of reaching the 90th percentile of climatology (~2.15"). 500 hPa heights are still around 595 Decameters with highs forecast in the mid-90s to near 100F in spots. Dew points should remain in the low to mid-70s with the environment less favorable for turbulent mixing of drier air aloft to the surface compared to previous days. While ensembles show up to an ~80% of reaching Heat Advisory criteria (108-112F) in spots, held off on a headline for now in coordination w/surrounding WFOs, mainly because of the uncertainty regarding the timing and placement of showers and thunderstorms. Marginally severe storms with damaging winds are possible, perhaps in the FL Big Bend and Southwest GA, where models hint at greater DCAPE. Slow moving storms will have the potential to produce localized excessive rainfall due to weak steering currents aloft; see the Hydrology section for more information on flooding potential. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025 The potential for dangerous heat continues Wednesday thru Friday. Mid-level heights remain anomalously high through Friday with the region situated between a weak trough to the west and subtropical ridge to the east. This will favor low to mid-level southwest flow in the Wednesday through Friday time frame. Meanwhile, there will be some drier air nearby due to the ridge, so PoPs are generally at or below normal, highest w/ diurnal convection along seabreezes. Out of all three days, ensembles favor Thursday having greatest chance of below normal PoPs, and guidance was adjusted accordingly. Highs remain in the middle to upper 90s Wed-Thu with lower to mid- 90s on Fri. The chance for reaching heat reaching advisory criteria (108-112F) is 70% on Wednesday, then decreasing to 50% by Friday. As a frontal boundary sags south into the region for the upcoming weekend, PoPs are expected to be above climatology, w/widespread ~70% values currently noted on Saturday and Sunday. This is also the time of year our PWAT reaches it's maximum per TAE Sounding Climatology, which is a 1.99" mean on Sunday. For the upcoming weekend, ensembles indicate a 70% of reaching the 90th percentile (2.15") PWAT, with a 30% chance of reaching the daily max (2.40"). This should effectively break the dangerous heat streak after Friday, with attention turning to heavy rainfall potential both Saturday and Sunday. See the Hydrology section for further details. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025 VFR through the period with northwest winds of 5 to 10 knots. Kept the PROB30 for -TSRA at TLH for isolated seabreeze convection that may develop near the airport later this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025 The coastal waters will be under the influence of High pressure near the Sabine River early this week, with a trough of low pressure developing to the west from mid to late week. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots this morning and again Tuesday morning gradually clock around and diminish, with a seabreeze developing near the coast each day. The highest chance of thunderstorms will be on Tuesday, with briefly higher winds and seas possible. By Wednesday, winds clock around to the southwest and remain that way through Friday. The pattern becomes more favorable for waterspouts from Wednesday thru Friday mornings, especially east of Walton County, particularly off the Bay, Gulf, and Taylor County coasts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Elevated mixing heights will contribute to high dispersions across much the region today. Minimum afternoon RH values look to bottom out around 40% today before rebounding on Tuesday. The lack of rain will make for dangerous heat the next several days as high temperatures top out in the upper 90s to lower 100s away from the Gulf Coast, with heat indices well into the triple digits. A wetter pattern returns on Tuesday. Any storms that develop may lead to briefly erratic and gusty winds. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025 The next chance of any meaningful precipitation is on Tuesday with numerous showers and thunderstorms possible. With above average atmospheric water content and slow storm motions, isolated flash flooding is possible during the afternoon/evening. Chances for precip for the remainder of the work week return to near or below average, highest with diurnal convection along the seabreezes. Looking ahead to the upcoming weekend, a frontal boundary sags into the region which will pool anomalously high moisture. The WPC Week 2 Hazard Outlook highlights portions of the region in a Moderate Risk of heavy rainfall. That is definitely something to watch, especially with portions of the FL Counties measuring ~200% of normal precipitation over the past month. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 101 80 98 77 / 20 10 70 20 Panama City 99 81 96 79 / 10 20 50 30 Dothan 99 78 98 75 / 10 20 60 30 Albany 101 78 99 76 / 20 30 60 30 Valdosta 101 78 99 76 / 20 20 60 20 Cross City 101 78 98 77 / 20 10 40 20 Apalachicola 96 81 93 80 / 10 10 30 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114- 115-118-127-128-134-326-426. GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161. AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Scholl SHORT TERM...LF LONG TERM....LF AVIATION...Scholl MARINE...LF FIRE WEATHER...Scholl HYDROLOGY...LF