445 FXUS65 KBYZ 230954 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 354 AM MDT Wed Jul 23 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms today. In far south- eastern Montana and north-eastern Wyoming, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening. - Below normal temperatures today (70s for most). - More typical July weather (warmer and drier) returns for Thursday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Thursday Night... With amble atmospheric moisture still in place ahead of an approaching shortwave trough, the potential for scattered showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms remains in the forecast this morning. Along with this, another push of low stratus and fog is expected. As far as the fog potential goes, the main areas of concern are the higher terrain and river valleys across the area. With ascent gradually increasing into the early afternoon hours today as the axis of the shortwave trough moves into the area, the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms remains in the forecast for this afternoon and early evening (20 to 60 percent). By late this afternoon into this evening, drier air and subsidence is expected to work in from the west behind the exiting shortwave trough. This will end any remaining chances of precipitation across the region. While much of the activity today is expected to remain mostly benign (rain showers and general thunderstorms), a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in far south- eastern Montana and north- eastern Wyoming during the afternoon and evening. The main threats with any strong thunderstorm is hail, strong winds, and heavy rain. Like yesterday though, lingering cloud cover may put a lid on the convective potential. Will have to see how things trend. As far as temperatures go today, look for afternoon highs to remain in the 70s for most across the lower elevations. While drier air will move into the region tonight, clearing skies combined with elevated boundary layer moisture from recent rain may allow for the development of fog once again. Thursday will see temperatures return back near normal (80s) as higher heights build into the region. While most areas will remain dry, there is a chance (10 to 25 percent) for isolated showers and thunderstorms over/near the mountains south of Billings during the afternoon and evening as a weak wave of energy and moisture pushes into the area. By late Thursday into Thursday night, a low level jet looks to then increase over southeastern Montana. This will allow for the potential of nocturnal showers and thunderstorms in south- eastern Montana (10 to 30 percent). Arends Friday through Tuesday... Confidence is high for a return to typical mid-summer weather from late this week through the first part of next week. This is courtesy of building high pressure over the central U.S. and northern Rockies. Look for seasonable to slightly warmer than normal temps (not extreme), with highs generally in the upper 80s to mid 90s, and at least a low risk of diurnal thunderstorms each day. The air mass will be notably drier Friday through the weekend, with pwats returning to more seasonable levels. A series of weak shortwaves emerging from a weak SW flow aloft should be enough for a few afternoon and evening higher-based t-storms each of these days, at least over the mountains, but feel that there is enough residual surface moisture from recent precipitation to help produce some weak activity at lower elevations too. In any event, the warmer mid levels (+12C to +15C at 700mb) and weak flow aloft should keep any of the convection from being severe. Precipitable waters are expected to increase early next week, not from the monsoon but rather more pronounced easterly low level flow as NW flow aloft develops over the northern plains and upper Great Lakes by the middle of next week. Ensembles show pwats returning to near or in excess of an inch. As a result, we should see a greater chance of t-storms starting Monday but especially by Tuesday, though timing of any shortwaves is impossible at this time. Would also expect a hint of a cooling trend early next week. Finally, as we have discussed recently at times, this Friday the 25th is the only day in July on which the Billings airport has never reached 100F. In fact, the record is "only" 98F. We will NOT reach triple digits this time around so this amusing oddity in our climate database will continue for another year. JKL && .AVIATION... Areas of low stratus (and perhaps localized fog) with reductions to MVFR or IFR are expected through the morning. This will be followed by a transition to VFR this afternoon. Drier air will finally enter the region tonight, bringing VFR regionwide, but cannot rule out localized valley fog late tonight into early Thursday morning, especially in far southeast MT. Regarding convection, scattered showers and t-storms will continue to affect the area through the day. Strongest storms are expected to occur east of KBIL and south of KMLS this afternoon, but all TAF sites are at risk of being impacted by a TS. Heavier shows have the potential to produce brief MVFR/IFR. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 075 056/088 062/092 061/092 061/091 061/087 062/090 4/T 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U LVM 080 049/087 053/090 053/089 051/089 051/088 053/090 2/T 11/U 11/U 12/T 11/U 11/U 11/U HDN 076 055/089 060/093 059/093 059/091 060/089 062/091 4/T 11/U 11/U 10/U 11/U 11/U 11/U MLS 076 056/088 063/095 063/094 064/093 064/088 064/089 3/T 21/U 11/U 11/U 21/B 22/T 21/B 4BQ 076 058/086 064/092 063/093 063/091 063/089 064/089 5/T 41/U 21/U 11/U 21/U 11/U 22/T BHK 076 053/084 060/090 060/091 061/088 059/085 059/082 4/T 31/U 22/T 11/U 21/B 22/T 32/T SHR 076 052/087 057/091 055/092 056/091 056/090 058/090 5/T 42/T 11/U 11/U 11/U 01/U 12/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings