037 FXUS64 KLIX 211040 CCA AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 540 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 416 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025 The primary concern ongoing through the short term period will be the potential for dangerous heat. Heat headlines will continue today and will likely be needed Tuesday as well as the fairly robust H5 ridge remains close to our region. On the backside of the mid level ridge some upper level dry air may filter into the the region aloft. With strong surface heating some of the dry air will likely try to mix downward, which inland may help drop dewpoints a tad and mitigate the highest heat index values in those areas. However, light onshore flow will help maintain a good bit of moisture right along the immediate coast across the MS Gulf Coast and southeast Louisiana. With the low level moisture and diurnal sea/lake breeze in the afternoon, cannot rule out lower end POPs both today and Tuesday. That said, with quite a bit of subsidence coverage will be on the low side, so lower than CLIMO POPs, if you will can be expected. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 416 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025 Wednesday is still the questionable day but it does look like we will get much if not all of the daylight hours without much cloud cover other than the partly cloudy variety of sky conditions. So, long story longer, we will likely bring the heat advisories through Wed for at least a majority of the area. The moisture that moves in will get ignited rapidly late afternoon Wed into Wed evening and this should start to the east and spread west after the strongest heating is accomplished. A few of these storms could be strong to severe as well and as always in the summer with heavy rainfall possible. At the moment, the precip numbers are within reason eventhough the high temps are well into the mid 90s. This will be due to the hottest part of the day moving past and the storms developing and moving in afterwards. Temps and precip follow the natural(negative)covariance of cooler highs and higher precip numbers. The higher precip numbers are due to at least one easterly wave traversing the gulf westward through the end of the week. At the moment, it is just something to watch and decipher each day until something is going to occur or not with this. It looks to be very close to the last time it visited but it only takes some ripe conditions for things to take that next step. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 416 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025 VFR through this taf cycle. TSRA chances are not high enough to show. && .MARINE... Issued at 416 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025 High pressure will be in control to start the new workweek across the local waters. Cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorms, mostly in the late night or morning hours. However, through around Tuesday coverage will be a bit on the spotty side. Going into Wednesday and the 2nd half of the week more tropical moisture moves into the region with a higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible in and around convection. A weak easterly wave is forecast to move west mid to late week, which may also bring slightly elevated winds and seas, but at this juncture it appears the moderate southerly winds will be below cautionary headline thresholds, though any slight upward adjustment to surface winds would require such headlines. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 95 73 96 74 / 0 0 10 10 BTR 94 75 95 76 / 10 0 10 10 ASD 95 75 96 76 / 10 0 20 10 MSY 94 79 96 80 / 20 0 20 10 GPT 94 77 96 77 / 10 0 20 20 PQL 95 75 97 76 / 10 0 30 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-083>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...TE MARINE...RDF