167 FXUS61 KRLX 210539 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 139 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front crosses tonight through Monday morning. There is a chance for strong to severe storms and flash flooding Monday. Mainly dry weather returns Tuesday onward. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 620 PM Sunday... Showers and thunderstorms have blossomed this afternoon and early evening along a weak area of surface convergence in advance of a shortwave trough and associated cold front, currently located across the northern Ohio Valley. This activity, which is presently located across the central/southern CWA, will continue to slide southeast through the evening. Additional rounds of showers/storms will move into the area overnight as the cold front slowly progresses through the region. In terms of severe weather, activity has been slightly more muted than originally thought. However, strong to isolated severe storms remain possible into early tonight, with strong wind gusts being the hazard. The more significant hazard associated with showers and storms this evening through tonight continues to be heavy rainfall. Given low FFG and prior rainfall today / yesterday evening, did expand the Flood Watch to include our SW VA zones, along with the central/southern mountains north to Parkersburg. Have updated PoPs and cloud cover through early tonight to represent the latest trends. The rest of the forecast remains on track. As of 1127 AM Sunday... Showers and thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon and overnight as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Models expect the front to slice through West Virginia between 00Z and 12Z Monday. In addition to sufficient CAPE (1,000+ J/kg expected between 18Z-00Z), shear will also be enough to support organized convection (30-35 kts of 0-6 km shear). Therefore, severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and this evening. Vertical wind profiles show that the most likely hazard of any thunderstorms today will be damaging straight-line wind gusts. Wet bulb zero heights (around 14,000 feet) are too high to support severe hail reaching the ground. In addition, SFC-1km SRH (30 m2/s2) is too low to support the development of tornadoes. Flash flooding will be one of the primary hazards today, especially given the saturated ground areawide. Precipitable Water (PWAT) values are over 2 inches across most places today, so heavy downpours will be likely with anything that develops. If multiple heavy thunderstorms move over the same areas within a short period of time, be vigilant of flash flooding. Convection Allowing Models (CAMs) are a bit inconsistent regarding the exact timing of convection today, but they generally show that convection will increase areawide between 5 PM and 10 PM this evening as the front approaches. There may also be another round of heavier rain overnight as another shortwave approaches from the west. The front will be located over the southern coalfields Monday. Dry air will funnel in north of the front, across northern West Virginia and southeast Ohio, bringing largely dry conditions for the day. Meanwhile, PWATs will remain elevated across the southern coalfields (1.80-2.20 inches), and that is where the heavy rain potential will be located Monday. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1127 AM Sunday... High pressure will control the weather across the mid-Atlantic states Tuesday through and Wednesday. Tuesday will be comfortably warm across the area with highs generally in the 80s. However, the heat will gradually build Wednesday, with temperatures reaching the 90s once again. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1127 AM Sunday... The heat will keep building Thursday with heat index values reaching the lower 100s by Thursday afternoon. Unsettled weather will return Friday and into next weekend as high pressure retreats to the southeast Atlantic coastline and another front approaches from the northwest. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 AM Monday... Scattered showers and isolated storms will affect BKW and EKN at the moment of writing. This activity may produce brief periods of IFR conditions. However, IFR/LIFR low status and or dense fog are expected to develop overnight mainly along the higher terrain sites and over areas that received rainfall yesterday. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR ceilings should prevail through at least 12-13Z Monday morning. A cold front pushes south of the area Monday morning, allowing for widespread VFR conditions at most terminals through Monday night. While much of the area will remain dry on Monday, SCT showers/storms will be possible across southern WV and southwest VA given a lingering frontal boundary, potentially resulting in brief MVFR/IFR VSBY. Light and variable or calm surface flow will prevail tonight, with light northwest to northeast flow developing on Monday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extend of restrictions overnight with low stratus, and/or fog could vary from the forecast. Return to VFR conditions on Monday may be earlier/later than currently progged. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 07/21/25 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H L L M M L H M H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L L M M H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M L M M M M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H M M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR conditions are possible with valley fog each morning through Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for WVZ005>007- 013>015-024>026-033-034-515>518. OH...Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for OHZ086-087. KY...Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GW/JMC NEAR TERM...GW/JMC SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...ARJ