949 FXUS64 KTSA 181652 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1152 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 846 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 - There is a low-medium chance (20-60%) for storms across parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through the mid morning hours. - Low chances (10-30%) of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon for portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Severe weather and flash flooding threats are not expected this afternoon. - Precipitation chances drop off and temperatures increase today as ridging builds in aloft. Hot and dry weather will likely persist through the weekend and into next week with Heat Advisories likely. && .UPDATE... Issued at 857 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Some updates have been made to the short term grids to account for the latest trends in the obs data. Pockets of very heavy rainfall occurred last night over portions of far NE OK into far NW AR as warm advection occurred atop the outflow boundary that was still present off the surface across the region from yesterday. Area VWPs show mainly southerly 925mb flow, suggesting that this boundary has either become diffuse or lifted north of the region. However, some spotty more high-based showers and storms persist in a zone of higher H5-H7 moisture across NE OK. This activity typically peaks during the cooler hours of the day and gradually fades toward the warmer hours of the day, and this trend is reflected in the latest short-term models. There is also an MCV apparent over the OK Panhandle/SW KS, but this system is expected to lift up into KS.Using the latest data for dewpoints and the model blend for temps today, no changes are expected at this time to the going Heat Advisory. Lacy && .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 1248 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early this morning, with very heavy rain and flash flooding occurring in portions of northwest Arkansas and far northeast Oklahoma. With Thursday's frontal boundary in place and a modest increase in the LLJ, a low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist through the overnight and early morning period across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. While CAMs vary in terms of QPF maximum, the flash flooding risk will remain elevated tonight given very heavy rainfall rates (1-3"/hr) with slow moving and training storms. Highest flash flooding risk occurs along and north of Hwy 412 in NW AR and into NE OK. Northwest Arkansas in particular has seen the highest rainfall totals thus far, and flash flooding may become significant here during the overnight hours. Please do not attempt to enter or drive through flooded areas or roadways. Additionally, be especially cautious when driving through thunderstorms at night as it can be more difficult to identify floodwater. Coverage will gradually decrease through the morning hours and ridging will expand across the region. Aside for a low chance of showers or storms this afternoon across far NE OK and NW AR, a dry and hot day is in store for the region. Heat Advisories remain in effect for portions of eastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas today where heat indices are forecast to climb to between 105-109 degrees. It may be necessary to add another row of counties in northeast Oklahoma, but given some uncertainty regarding lingering morning/ afternoon shower and storm potential... and resulting cloud cover over these areas... have opted to hold off for now. Counties that will be watched closely for an expansion include Osage, Washington, Nowata, and Craig. Advisory or not, it will be a hot day for most of the FA today and heat safety precautions should be taken to reduce risk of heat illness while outdoors. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1248 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Predominantly dry conditions are forecast tonight through the end of the period under the influence of upper level ridging. Low PoPs could creep back into parts of W-Central Arkansas Saturday as a tropical disturbance moves out of the gulf. However, much of this activity is currently projected to remain east of the area and will leave non-mentionable NBM PoPs in place. Otherwise, increasing heat stress will be the main story during the long term. As temperatures climb into the mid-upper 90s this weekend into next week, maximum heat index values will increase to near or above 105 for much of the region. As a result, heat headlines appear likely for the foreseeable future. While it is mid-July, this is the first notable heat wave of the season and heat safety precautions should continue to be emphasized. Long range models tend to hold onto ridging across the C CONUS in some form beyond the forecast period, with increased chances for above average temperatures and below average precipitation for the remainder of the month. This marks a noticeable pattern change from the active and wet first half of the summer. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 VFR conditions will prevail thru the period with one exception. Some guidance hints at some light MVFR fog potential at the far NW AR sites. Some heavy rain fell in the area last night, so that strengthens the argument. Inserted TEMPOs to cover. Guidance also suggests that sfc winds will be stronger on Saturday. Inserted gusts up to 20 kts from mid-morning onward. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 76 96 77 97 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 76 97 76 97 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 74 96 76 96 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 74 96 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 73 94 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 73 95 74 95 / 10 0 0 0 MKO 74 95 75 95 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 74 94 75 95 / 10 10 0 0 F10 74 95 75 96 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 73 94 75 95 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ060>062-066-067- 070>072-074-076. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ055>057- 060>062-066-067-070>076. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...43 LONG TERM....43 AVIATION...30