302 FXUS65 KABQ 301123 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 523 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 513 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Abundant moisture returns today through Thursday allowing for greater coverages of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. These will be efficient rain producing storms which will increase the risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially over recent burn scars. - Drier air sweeps in by the Fourth of July holiday and Saturday, limiting the development of showers and thunderstorms before rain chances rise again on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1231 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 A moist outflow from storms in eastern NM was sent westward into central areas of the state last evening with another one working its way in early this morning. This has produced gusty east canyon winds in ABQ and other centrally vulnerable locations. These gusty winds will continue early this morning, gradually subsiding before sunrise while surface dewpoints surge upward toward the Continental Divide and beyond. This will boost PWATs, and easterly upslope winds will help fuel a more robust crop of storms, especially along and immediately east of the central mountain chain. Secondarily, additional storms are expected to develop on the east faces of the Continental Divide, mainly in western to southwestern NM this afternoon. With the monsoon high poised just south of the Four Corners, storms will tend to drift southward at slow paces. This could allow for training cells over the central mountain chain as they move parallel to the mountain sub ranges. This along with high consensus among CAMs with regards to QPF is raising concerns for locally heavy rainfall over the central mountains and nearby highlands, so the Flash Flood Watch will be expanded this morning. Some surface convergence over east central NM and any outflows that propagate that far east will also help scattered storms develop. Multicellular clusters are modeled to work southward into south central and southeastern NM this evening, and a few stray strong cells may even regenerate after midnight. Batches of weaker showers and stratiform rain will also likely sustain themselves over southeast NM through Tuesday morning. The numerous storms over the central mountain chain and surrounding areas will keep easterly winds pushing into the Rio Grande onward to the AZ border through tonight with gusts surging through gaps and canyons. This will help push moisture westward while deepening it to more than just at the low surface layer. The showers and widespread cloud cover from Tuesday morning may linger in eastern and central zones through the afternoon, keeping much cooler and somewhat more stable conditions that could throw a wrench into both the temperature and POP forecast for the eastern half of the forecast area. Currently, high POPs are in place across this area, but this may periodically consist of more stratiform precipitation with lower rain rates. Farther west toward the Continental Divide, more breaks in the clouds would seem to find their way to destabilize the atmosphere for more traditional and discrete thunderstorms with heavier rainfall rates Tuesday afternoon and evening. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1231 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 By Wednesday, the upper high will not be as well-defined, and a weak upper low will be moving inland over CA. This will start to shift storm motions back toward the north while plenty of high PWATs remain (0.9 to 1.4 inch). More instability is advertised by Wednesday afternoon, and storms should initiate rather easily over the high terrain where numerous cells are anticipated. For Thursday, forecast models have sped up the progression of the CA low, dragging the remnants of it as a weak shortwave over the Four Corners by late in the day. This will not only add more of an westerly component to the winds aloft, carrying storms more eastbound, but it will also bring a swath of drier air on the backside of the wave. This interface of the dry/moist air near the axis of the shortwave will be a focal point for stronger storms, and the evolution, track, and speed will certainly warrant close attention for Thursday's storm coverage and characterization. Otherwise, high terrain areas should again fare active with numerous cells that will spawn less coverage into adjacent valleys and plains through the evening. With much drier air feeding into NM on the backside of Thursday's wave, convection will struggle much more on Friday with a substantial drop in storm coverage. This will be the case for most of the state again on Saturday, but a weak moist, backdoor front is still progged to infiltrate far northeastern NM where storms would initiate along the surface/moisture convergence zone. These northeast storms would likely repeat the scenario, shoving moisture southwestward Saturday night and setting Sunday up for at least scattered storms over the central mountain chain, if not even toward the Continental Divide. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 513 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 A few patches of low stratus clouds are developing along the east slopes of the Sandia/Manzano and the Sacramento mountains early this morning where MVFR ceilings will be observed for a couple hours after sunrise. A significant increase in showers and thunderstorms is expected today, particularly near and east of the central mountain chain of New Mexico. Scattered storms will also develop over the west central to southwestern mountains of the state. Storms will be strong, producing heavy downpours along with gusty downburst winds and small hail. Brief periods of MVFR ceilings/visibility can be expected during afternoon and evening storms with more prolonged MVFR to IFR conditions late tonight into the early morning hours in the eastern half of New Mexico where rain, low clouds, and patchy fog will turn more widespread overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1231 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Yesterday's abysmally dry and low RH in western NM will be contrasted by much better recoveries this morning as moisture keeps surging in from the east. Areas west of the Continental Divide will still observe low humidity this afternoon, dropping below 10 to 15 percent, but to the east much higher humidity and more development of soaking thunderstorms is expected today. Into tonight, showers and thunderstorms will carry on, primarily over east central to southeastern NM with additional moisture getting sent westward again. This will lead to excellent humidity recoveries for Tuesday morning. Storms on Tuesday would have a better chance over far western areas of the state (except far northwest) while much cooler temperatures prevail in the eastern half of the state with showery/rainy conditions persisting much of the day. After another moist and high humidity recovery morning on Wednesday, a stormy afternoon will follow with the pattern repeating into Thursday, leaving many northern and central locales with wetting rainfall for at least one day of this stretch, if not more. Drier air looks to sweep into NM by Friday, limiting the coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Moisture will come back to the northeast late Saturday via a backdoor front, eventually spreading farther west into Sunday with storms and wetting rainfall chances increasing again. Wind concerns over the next few days will primarily be driven by thunderstorm outflows. Most gusty surges will be short-lived, but sustained periods of gusty condtions will persist, especially today and tonight, downwind (west) of gaps and canyons within the central mountain chain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 96 63 91 62 / 10 5 10 20 Dulce........................... 89 47 83 47 / 40 20 40 20 Cuba............................ 87 53 80 53 / 50 30 30 20 Gallup.......................... 93 54 87 53 / 5 10 20 20 El Morro........................ 88 53 81 53 / 20 20 40 30 Grants.......................... 90 53 82 53 / 30 20 30 30 Quemado......................... 91 56 84 56 / 30 20 50 40 Magdalena....................... 87 58 78 59 / 60 50 50 40 Datil........................... 85 53 78 55 / 50 40 50 40 Reserve......................... 96 53 88 53 / 30 20 50 40 Glenwood........................ 98 58 90 58 / 40 20 60 40 Chama........................... 81 45 76 45 / 60 20 60 20 Los Alamos...................... 82 56 75 56 / 60 40 70 30 Pecos........................... 80 53 72 53 / 70 60 70 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 80 49 75 50 / 70 40 60 20 Red River....................... 70 42 66 43 / 80 40 60 20 Angel Fire...................... 73 40 68 40 / 80 50 60 20 Taos............................ 83 49 77 50 / 60 40 50 20 Mora............................ 76 48 69 47 / 80 60 70 30 Espanola........................ 89 56 82 57 / 60 30 50 20 Santa Fe........................ 83 56 75 56 / 60 50 60 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 87 56 79 56 / 60 50 50 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 89 62 83 63 / 60 50 40 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 91 63 84 63 / 60 50 30 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 93 63 87 64 / 60 50 30 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 92 62 85 63 / 60 40 30 20 Belen........................... 94 61 85 62 / 50 40 20 30 Bernalillo...................... 93 62 86 62 / 60 50 30 20 Bosque Farms.................... 93 60 86 61 / 50 40 20 30 Corrales........................ 93 62 86 63 / 60 50 30 20 Los Lunas....................... 94 62 86 63 / 50 40 20 30 Placitas........................ 88 61 82 61 / 60 50 40 20 Rio Rancho...................... 90 62 85 63 / 60 40 30 20 Socorro......................... 96 64 86 65 / 50 40 40 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 83 55 75 55 / 60 50 40 30 Tijeras......................... 87 57 79 58 / 60 50 40 30 Edgewood........................ 86 53 76 53 / 60 60 50 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 87 52 76 53 / 60 60 60 30 Clines Corners.................. 78 52 69 53 / 60 60 60 40 Mountainair..................... 85 54 75 55 / 60 60 50 40 Gran Quivira.................... 85 55 75 54 / 60 60 60 40 Carrizozo....................... 87 60 79 59 / 50 50 70 40 Ruidoso......................... 78 54 69 54 / 70 40 90 40 Capulin......................... 73 52 71 53 / 70 50 40 20 Raton........................... 78 53 76 53 / 70 50 40 20 Springer........................ 82 54 76 54 / 70 60 50 20 Las Vegas....................... 78 51 71 52 / 70 60 60 30 Clayton......................... 81 59 77 59 / 50 50 30 20 Roy............................. 80 56 73 57 / 70 70 50 30 Conchas......................... 88 61 78 61 / 60 70 60 40 Santa Rosa...................... 85 59 74 59 / 60 60 60 50 Tucumcari....................... 85 60 77 61 / 60 70 60 50 Clovis.......................... 86 62 78 62 / 60 70 80 60 Portales........................ 87 62 80 62 / 60 70 80 60 Fort Sumner..................... 89 61 79 61 / 60 60 70 50 Roswell......................... 91 66 81 66 / 50 70 70 50 Picacho......................... 86 60 76 60 / 60 60 80 50 Elk............................. 84 56 74 57 / 70 50 80 40 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ212- 214-215-218-221>224-226-229-239. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...52